ScoreProb
Primera Division El Salvador Round 19 2026

Platense vs Cacahuatique

Platense Home · Elo 1,474
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cacahuatique Away · Elo 1,481
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Platense win
Platense winPick
43.9%
Draw
27.2%
Cacahuatique win
28.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.1%
No47.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.9%
Under 2.553.1%

How much we know

Platense history71 matches
Cacahuatique history80 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Platense are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,474 against 1,481. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.13 goals a game over 71 matches for Platense, against 1.09 over 80 for Cacahuatique.

  • Defences are close

    Platense concede 1.30 a game, Cacahuatique 1.36.

  • Cacahuatique games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Platense matches, against 49% for Cacahuatique. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Platense
Cacahuatique
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1474.4
ELO
1481.1
71
ELO · Matches
80
1474.4
Current Team ELO
1481.1
1481.1
Current Opponent ELO
1474.4
-6.75
Current ELO Difference
6.75
0.49
Expected score
0.51
71
History Matches
80
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
48.47
Overperformance
49.51
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
80
1.08
PPG
1.18
23.9%
Win rate
27.5%
36.6%
Draw rate
35.0%
39.4%
Loss rate
37.5%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
72.5%
35.2%
Over 2.5 rate
48.8%
28.2%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
38
1.21
PPG
1.61
26.5%
Win rate
44.7%
41.2%
Draw rate
26.3%
32.4%
Loss rate
28.9%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
29.4%
Over 2.5 rate
52.6%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
18.4%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
34
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
1.09
66.2%
Scoring rate
67.5%
50.7%
BTTS rate
55.0%
1.15
Goals for per game
1.24
70.6%
Scoring rate
73.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
55.3%
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
80.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
60.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
71
History Matches
80
1.13
Goals Mean
1.09
1.07
Goals Std
1.06
66.2%
Scored 1+ rate
67.5%
31.0%
Scored 2+ rate
27.5%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
8.8%
1.15
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.36
74.6%
Conceding rate
71.3%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.18
73.5%
Conceding rate
68.4%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.83
80.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
71
History Matches
80
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.20
Conceded Std
1.23
31.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
15.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.3%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
33.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
33.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
25.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
80
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.57
Goal Difference Std
1.63
1.96
Stability score
0.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
79
14
Lead Matches
21
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
52.4%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.59
23
Trailing Matches
22
21.7%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
13.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
79
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.90
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.63
52
Normal Rest History Matches
57
1.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.12
13
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
6
1.60
PPG
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
16.7%
40.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
20.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
5
Current Competition Matches
6
1.60
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
4
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.60
Portability PPG Range
0.40
66.99
Portability Score
77.50
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
80
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-6.75
PPG-0.09
GF0.04
GA-0.07
PPG0.60
PPG-0.40
PPG0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate1.3%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate3.1%
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate3.5%
Scored 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Goals Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.51
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.88
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score1.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.06
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate33.3%
Lead Points Retention0.32
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.73
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.20
Portability Score-10.50
Rest days-1.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO-6.75
Current Opponent ELO6.75
Current ELO Difference-13.49
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-9
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Platense

D
Inter0–0Platense31 Oct · away
Pick: Inter 43% · missed
W
FAS2–3Platense18 Oct · away
Pick: FAS 58% · missed
W
Platense2–1Municipal Limeño4 Oct · home
Pick: Platense 42% · hit
L
Platense0–3Inter29 Aug · home
Pick: Platense 42% · missed
D
Platense2–2Alianza26 Aug · home
Pick: Platense 42% · missed

Cacahuatique

W
Cacahuatique1–0Inca Aruba31 Oct · home
Pick: Cacahuatique 68% · hit
D
Municipal Limeño3–3Cacahuatique25 Oct · away
Pick: Municipal Limeño 45% · missed
D
Cacahuatique0–0Alianza17 Oct · home
Pick: Cacahuatique 34% · missed
D
Inca Aruba1–1Cacahuatique29 Aug · away
Pick: Cacahuatique 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Platense and Cacahuatique meet in Primera Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Platense win 43.9%, draw 27.2%, Cacahuatique win 28.9%. The pick is Platense win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.9%. Both teams to score: 52.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.