ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Spain Group 15 - 10 2026

Aoiz vs Beti Kozkor

Aoiz Home · Elo 1,455
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Beti Kozkor Away · Elo 1,505
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Beti Kozkor win
Aoiz win
31.6%
Draw
25.6%
Beti Kozkor winPick
42.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.5%
No46.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.8%
Under 2.550.2%

How much we know

Aoiz history33 matches
Beti Kozkor history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Beti Kozkor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Beti Kozkor are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,505 against 1,455. On rating alone Beti Kozkor would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Beti Kozkor score more

    1.21 goals a game over 33 matches for Aoiz, against 1.35 over 48 for Beti Kozkor.

  • Beti Kozkor concede fewer

    Aoiz concede 1.48 a game, Beti Kozkor 1.21.

  • Aoiz games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Aoiz matches, against 40% for Beti Kozkor. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aoiz
Beti Kozkor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1454.6
ELO
1504.9
33
ELO · Matches
48
1454.6
Current Team ELO
1504.9
1504.9
Current Opponent ELO
1454.6
-50.26
Current ELO Difference
50.26
0.43
Expected score
0.57
33
History Matches
48
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.00
45.65
Overperformance
50.34
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.70
1.70
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
33
Matches
48
1.00
PPG
1.33
24.2%
Win rate
33.3%
27.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
48.5%
Loss rate
33.3%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
60.6%
Over 2.5 rate
39.6%
30.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.1%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
24
1.13
PPG
1.00
31.3%
Win rate
20.8%
18.8%
Draw rate
37.5%
50.0%
Loss rate
41.7%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
37.5%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.23
16
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.21
Goals for per game
1.35
75.8%
Scoring rate
68.8%
63.6%
BTTS rate
47.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.21
87.5%
Scoring rate
62.5%
68.8%
BTTS rate
54.2%
33
History Matches
48
1.21
Goals Mean
1.35
1.04
Goals Std
1.42
75.8%
Scored 1+ rate
68.8%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
31.3%
6.1%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.48
Goals against per game
1.21
75.8%
Conceding rate
68.8%
1.56
Goals against per game
1.46
68.8%
Conceding rate
83.3%
33
History Matches
48
1.48
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.08
Conceded Std
1.12
54.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
15.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.6%
1.56
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
33
History Matches
48
0.95
Result entropy
1.00
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.66
4.53
Stability score
0.00
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
31
Eligible Matches
48
7
Lead Matches
11
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.88
10
Trailing Matches
10
20.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
31
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.1
Rest days
182.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
18
Normal Rest History Matches
21
0.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
14
Long Rest History Matches
23
0.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.09
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.10
—
Portability PPG Range
0.19
—
Portability Score
83.76
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
33
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-50.26
PPG-0.33
GF-0.14
GA0.28
PPG0.13
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-15
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate14.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-15
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std-0.38
Scored 1+ rate7.0%
Scored 2+ rate2.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.27
History Matches-15
Conceded Mean0.28
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate21.2%
Conceded 3+ rate0.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches-15
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score4.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.05
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.72
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Current Team ELO-50.26
Current Opponent ELO50.26
Current ELO Difference-100.5
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-15
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Aoiz

D
Bidezarra1–1Aoiz30 Oct · away
Pick: Bidezarra 50% · missed
D
Aoiz1–1San Juan24 Oct · home
Pick: San Juan 45% · missed
L
Cirbonero2–1Aoiz18 Oct · away
Pick: Cirbonero 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Beti Kozkor

L
Beti Kozkor0–1Cantolagua31 Oct · home
Pick: Beti Kozkor 67% · missed
L
Mutilvera3–0Beti Kozkor24 Oct · away
Pick: Mutilvera 54% · hit
W
Beti Kozkor3–0Beti Onak8 Oct · home
Pick: Beti Kozkor 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Aoiz and Beti Kozkor meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Aoiz win 31.6%, draw 25.6%, Beti Kozkor win 42.8%. The pick is Beti Kozkor win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.8%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.