ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Spain Group 15 - 10 2026

Huarte vs San Juan

Huarte Home · Elo 1,505
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
San Juan Away · Elo 1,546
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: San Juan win
Huarte win
32.3%
Draw
26.3%
San Juan winPick
41.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%
No45.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%

How much we know

Huarte history47 matches
San Juan history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why San Juan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • San Juan are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,546 against 1,505. On rating alone San Juan would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Huarte score more

    1.51 goals a game over 47 matches for Huarte, against 1.33 over 52 for San Juan.

  • San Juan concede fewer

    Huarte concede 1.34 a game, San Juan 0.83.

  • Huarte games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Huarte matches, against 37% for San Juan. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Huarte
San Juan
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.5
ELO
1545.5
47
ELO · Matches
52
1505.5
Current Team ELO
1545.5
1545.5
Current Opponent ELO
1505.5
-40.06
Current ELO Difference
40.06
0.44
Expected score
0.56
47
History Matches
52
0.01
Residual Mean
0.04
50.54
Overperformance
52.99
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.30
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
52
1.51
PPG
1.58
46.8%
Win rate
38.5%
10.6%
Draw rate
42.3%
42.6%
Loss rate
19.2%
72.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
59.6%
Over 2.5 rate
36.5%
36.2%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
26
1.83
PPG
1.23
58.3%
Win rate
26.9%
8.3%
Draw rate
42.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
30.8%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
38.5%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
24
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.51
Goals for per game
1.33
76.6%
Scoring rate
69.2%
55.3%
BTTS rate
46.2%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.15
83.3%
Scoring rate
73.1%
54.2%
BTTS rate
57.7%
47
History Matches
52
1.51
Goals Mean
1.33
1.11
Goals Std
1.25
76.6%
Scored 1+ rate
69.2%
51.1%
Scored 2+ rate
34.6%
21.3%
Scored 3+ rate
23.1%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.34
Goals against per game
0.83
74.5%
Conceding rate
57.7%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.15
70.8%
Conceding rate
73.1%
47
History Matches
52
1.34
Conceded Mean
0.83
1.19
Conceded Std
0.85
34.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.2%
17.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.8%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
23.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
42.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
52
0.87
Result entropy
0.95
1.67
Goal Difference Std
1.60
12.86
Stability score
4.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
49
11
Lead Matches
13
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.90
11
Trailing Matches
10
27.3%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
27.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.31
1.02
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
182.0
Rest days
84.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
19
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.37
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.61
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.29
Portability PPG Range
0.50
77.52
Portability Score
66.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-40.06
PPG-0.07
GF0.18
GA0.51
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate7.4%
Scored 2+ rate16.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.51
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate13.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.53
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score8.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.58
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate6.3%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate27.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range-0.21
Portability Score10.85
Rest days97.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Current Team ELO-40.06
Current Opponent ELO40.06
Current ELO Difference-80.11
Expected score-0.11
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Huarte

D
Cirbonero1–1Huarte31 Oct · away
Pick: Cirbonero 40% · missed
W
Huarte1–0Avance Ezcabarte23 Oct · home
Pick: Huarte 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

San Juan

W
San Juan3–1Doneztebe FT30 Oct · home
Pick: San Juan 65% · hit
D
Aoiz1–1San Juan24 Oct · away
Pick: San Juan 45% · missed
W
San Juan4–0Cantolagua18 Oct · home
Pick: San Juan 68% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Huarte and San Juan meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Huarte win 32.3%, draw 26.3%, San Juan win 41.4%. The pick is San Juan win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.1%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.