ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Spain Group 15 - 10 2026

Mutilvera vs Izarra

Mutilvera Home · Elo 1,437
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Izarra Away · Elo 1,532
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Izarra win
Mutilvera win
38.6%
Draw
22.6%
Izarra winPick
38.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.8%
No44.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.5%
Under 2.541.5%

How much we know

Mutilvera history53 matches
Izarra history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Izarra are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Izarra are rated 94 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,532 against 1,437. On rating alone Izarra would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Izarra score more

    1.17 goals a game over 53 matches for Mutilvera, against 1.45 over 53 for Izarra.

  • Izarra concede fewer

    Mutilvera concede 1.57 a game, Izarra 1.36.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Mutilvera matches, against 58% for Izarra. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mutilvera
Izarra
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1437.4
ELO
1531.6
53
ELO · Matches
53
1437.4
Current Team ELO
1531.6
1531.6
Current Opponent ELO
1437.4
-94.13
Current ELO Difference
94.13
0.37
Expected score
0.63
53
History Matches
53
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.03
46.09
Overperformance
52.21
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.40
0.40
Goals for per game
2.00
2.40
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.70
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
2.50
Goals against per game
1.20
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.40
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
53
1.19
PPG
1.26
32.1%
Win rate
32.1%
22.6%
Draw rate
30.2%
45.3%
Loss rate
37.7%
75.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.5%
50.9%
Over 2.5 rate
58.5%
39.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
27
1.43
PPG
1.15
39.3%
Win rate
25.9%
25.0%
Draw rate
37.0%
35.7%
Loss rate
37.0%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
70.4%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
28
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.17
Goals for per game
1.45
64.2%
Scoring rate
71.7%
39.6%
BTTS rate
54.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.52
78.6%
Scoring rate
74.1%
46.4%
BTTS rate
66.7%
53
History Matches
53
1.17
Goals Mean
1.45
1.30
Goals Std
1.30
64.2%
Scored 1+ rate
71.7%
28.3%
Scored 2+ rate
39.6%
13.2%
Scored 3+ rate
24.5%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.52
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.57
Goals against per game
1.36
67.9%
Conceding rate
73.6%
1.36
Goals against per game
1.67
60.7%
Conceding rate
81.5%
53
History Matches
53
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.38
Conceded Std
1.23
47.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.6%
32.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.3%
1.36
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
35.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
35.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
53
0.96
Result entropy
1.00
2.17
Goal Difference Std
1.90
3.53
Stability score
0.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
53
17
Lead Matches
12
64.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.83
16
Trailing Matches
13
6.3%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
80.92
Rest days
154.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
28
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
24
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.70
1.18
Portability PPG Range
1.41
45.78
Portability Score
41.51
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-94.13
PPG-0.08
GF-0.28
GA0.21
PPG0.28
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate7.5%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate20.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.56
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Conceded 2+ rate7.5%
Conceded 3+ rate20.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score3.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.42
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.22
Portability Score4.27
Rest days-73.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-94.13
Current Opponent ELO94.13
Current ELO Difference-188.3
Expected score-0.26
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mutilvera

D
Cortes1–1Mutilvera31 Oct · away
Pick: Cortes 44% · missed
W
Mutilvera3–0Beti Kozkor24 Oct · home
Pick: Mutilvera 54% · hit
W
Bidezarra1–3Mutilvera17 Oct · away
Pick: Bidezarra 36% · missed
W
Cirbonero0–4Mutilvera4 Oct · away
Pick: Cirbonero 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Izarra

W
Izarra2–0Subiza31 Oct · home
Pick: Izarra 50% · hit
W
Beti Onak1–4Izarra24 Oct · away
Pick: Izarra 41% · hit
D
Izarra0–0Txantrea18 Oct · home
Pick: Izarra 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mutilvera and Izarra meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Mutilvera win 38.6%, draw 22.6%, Izarra win 38.8%. The pick is Izarra win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.5%. Both teams to score: 55.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.