ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

Arminia Bielefeld U19 vs Preußen Münster U19

Arminia Bielefeld U19 Home · Elo 1,501
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Preußen Münster U19 Away · Elo 1,556
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Arminia Bielefeld U19 win
Arminia Bielefeld U19 winPick
50.2%
Draw
20.3%
Preußen Münster U19 win
29.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.4%
No34.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.9%
Under 2.528.1%

How much we know

Arminia Bielefeld U19 history45 matches
Preußen Münster U19 history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Arminia Bielefeld U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Preußen Münster U19 are rated 55 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,556 against 1,501. On rating alone Preußen Münster U19 would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Arminia Bielefeld U19 score more

    2.18 goals a game over 45 matches for Arminia Bielefeld U19, against 1.89 over 47 for Preußen Münster U19.

  • Defences are close

    Arminia Bielefeld U19 concede 1.78 a game, Preußen Münster U19 1.64.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Arminia Bielefeld U19 matches, against 70% for Preußen Münster U19. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arminia Bielefeld U19
Preußen Münster U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1501.4
ELO
1556.4
45
ELO · Matches
47
1501.4
Current Team ELO
1556.4
1556.4
Current Opponent ELO
1501.4
-55.03
Current ELO Difference
55.03
0.42
Expected score
0.58
45
History Matches
47
0.00
Residual Mean
0.06
49.90
Overperformance
54.15
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
4.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
2.20
3.10
Goals for per game
2.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
70.0%
3.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
2.95
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
3.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
47
1.47
PPG
1.49
44.4%
Win rate
42.6%
13.3%
Draw rate
21.3%
42.2%
Loss rate
36.2%
91.1%
Over 1.5 rate
89.4%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
70.2%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
46.8%
2.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
24
1.68
PPG
1.46
50.0%
Win rate
41.7%
18.2%
Draw rate
20.8%
31.8%
Loss rate
37.5%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
22
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.18
Goals for per game
1.89
82.2%
Scoring rate
80.9%
57.8%
BTTS rate
63.8%
2.36
Goals for per game
1.71
95.5%
Scoring rate
70.8%
59.1%
BTTS rate
54.2%
4.00
Goals for per game
2.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
45
History Matches
47
2.18
Goals Mean
1.89
2.10
Goals Std
1.39
82.2%
Scored 1+ rate
80.9%
53.3%
Scored 2+ rate
57.4%
31.1%
Scored 3+ rate
36.2%
2.36
Venue Goals Mean
1.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.78
Goals against per game
1.64
75.6%
Conceding rate
78.7%
1.68
Goals against per game
1.50
63.6%
Conceding rate
79.2%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
45
History Matches
47
1.78
Conceded Mean
1.64
1.55
Conceded Std
1.33
48.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.9%
31.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.4%
1.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
17.8%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
4.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
17.8%
Failed-to-score rate
19.1%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
4.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
24.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
47
0.90
Result entropy
0.97
2.98
Goal Difference Std
2.09
9.60
Stability score
3.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
47
22
Lead Matches
17
77.3%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.80
16
Trailing Matches
13
25.0%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
1.13
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.10
Rest days
76.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
18
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
25
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
2.25
50.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
4.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
2
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.25
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.54
0.79
Portability PPG Range
1.32
56.00
Portability Score
47.95
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-55.03
PPG-0.02
GF0.28
GA0.14
PPG-0.75
PPG0.22
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate15.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std0.71
Scored 1+ rate1.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.66
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std1.78
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate3.2%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate7.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.21
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.89
Stability score6.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.67
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate0.8%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.54
Portability Score8.05
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.13
Current Team ELO-55.03
Current Opponent ELO55.03
Current ELO Difference-110.1
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Arminia Bielefeld U19

W
Meppen U190–4Arminia Bielefeld U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Arminia Bielefeld U19 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Preußen Münster U19

L
Preußen Münster U190–1Wolfsburg U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Preußen Münster U19 39% · missed
W
Preußen Münster U195–2Paderborn U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Preußen Münster U19 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Arminia Bielefeld U19 and Preußen Münster U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Arminia Bielefeld U19 win 50.2%, draw 20.3%, Preußen Münster U19 win 29.5%. The pick is Arminia Bielefeld U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.9%. Both teams to score: 65.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.