ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 10 2026

Arosa vs Compostela

Arosa Home · Elo 1,616
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Compostela Away · Elo 1,560
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Compostela win
Arosa win
34.5%
Draw
26.6%
Compostela winPick
38.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.8%
No45.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

How much we know

Arosa history50 matches
Compostela history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Compostela are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Arosa are rated 56 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,616 against 1,560. On rating alone Arosa would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Arosa score more

    1.72 goals a game over 50 matches for Arosa, against 1.43 over 56 for Compostela.

  • Defences are close

    Arosa concede 1.16 a game, Compostela 1.14.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Arosa matches, against 46% for Compostela. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 2 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arosa
Compostela
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1616.3
ELO
1560.3
50
ELO · Matches
56
1616.3
Current Team ELO
1560.3
1560.3
Current Opponent ELO
1616.3
56.00
Current ELO Difference
-56.00
0.58
Expected score
0.42
50
History Matches
56
0.12
Residual Mean
0.06
58.46
Overperformance
54.24
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.80
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.70
1.40
Goals for per game
1.60
0.70
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.74
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
56
1.88
PPG
1.57
52.0%
Win rate
42.9%
32.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
16.0%
Loss rate
28.6%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.4%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
32.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
27
1.85
PPG
1.26
50.0%
Win rate
29.6%
34.6%
Draw rate
37.0%
15.4%
Loss rate
33.3%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
25.9%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
7.4%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
26
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.72
Goals for per game
1.43
88.0%
Scoring rate
73.2%
60.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.92
Goals for per game
1.00
96.2%
Scoring rate
70.4%
69.2%
BTTS rate
44.4%
50
History Matches
56
1.72
Goals Mean
1.43
1.15
Goals Std
1.32
88.0%
Scored 1+ rate
73.2%
52.0%
Scored 2+ rate
39.3%
22.0%
Scored 3+ rate
19.6%
1.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.16
Goals against per game
1.14
68.0%
Conceding rate
69.6%
1.27
Goals against per game
0.93
73.1%
Conceding rate
63.0%
50
History Matches
56
1.16
Conceded Mean
1.14
0.99
Conceded Std
1.04
38.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.9%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.4%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
0.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
3.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.8%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
3.8%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
56
0.91
Result entropy
0.98
1.36
Goal Difference Std
1.87
9.17
Stability score
1.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
56
19
Lead Matches
21
78.9%
Lead Win Rate
76.2%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.83
13
Trailing Matches
12
46.2%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
23.1%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
98.92
Rest days
112.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
21
Long Rest History Matches
23
2.24
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.87
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.43
0.53
Portability PPG Range
0.85
65.35
Portability Score
54.05
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO56.00
PPG0.31
GF0.29
GA0.02
PPG0.59
PPG1.80
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate1.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate14.8%
Scored 2+ rate12.7%
Scored 3+ rate2.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.92
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.83
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate1.6%
Conceded 2+ rate4.1%
Conceded 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.39
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.51
Stability score7.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.27
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate2.8%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate21.2%
Trailing Win Rate14.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.32
Portability Score11.29
Rest days-14.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.37
Current Team ELO56.00
Current Opponent ELO-56.00
Current ELO Difference112.0
Expected score0.16
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Arosa

D
Portugalete3–3Arosa1 Nov · away
Pick: Portugalete 54% · missed
W
Arosa2–0Pontevedra27 Oct · home
Pick: Pontevedra 43% · missed
L
Sestao River1–0Arosa24 Oct · away
Pick: Sestao River 42% · hit
W
Arosa4–1Llanera18 Oct · home
Pick: Arosa 40% · hit
D
Ourense CF0–0Arosa4 Oct · away
Pick: Ourense CF 42% · missed

Compostela

D
Compostela0–0Basconia1 Nov · home
Pick: Compostela 46% · missed
W
Llanera1–3Compostela24 Oct · away
Pick: Llanera 40% · missed
W
Compostela4–1Atlético Astorga17 Oct · home
Pick: Compostela 41% · hit
L
Compostela1–2Real Oviedo II4 Oct · home
Pick: Compostela 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Arosa and Compostela meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Arosa win 34.5%, draw 26.6%, Compostela win 38.9%. The pick is Compostela win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.9%. Both teams to score: 54.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.