ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 10 2026

Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Gernika

Gimnástica Torrelavega Home · Elo 1,648
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gernika Away · Elo 1,501
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gimnástica Torrelavega win
Gimnástica Torrelavega winPick
63.8%
Draw
17.7%
Gernika win
18.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.3%
No51.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%

How much we know

Gimnástica Torrelavega history52 matches
Gernika history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Gimnástica Torrelavega are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gimnástica Torrelavega are rated 147 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,648 against 1,501. On rating alone Gimnástica Torrelavega would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Gimnástica Torrelavega score far more

    2.10 goals a game over 52 matches for Gimnástica Torrelavega, against 1.06 over 49 for Gernika.

  • Gimnástica Torrelavega concede fewer

    Gimnástica Torrelavega concede 0.77 a game, Gernika 1.24.

  • Gimnástica Torrelavega games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Gimnástica Torrelavega matches, against 41% for Gernika. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gimnástica Torrelavega
Gernika
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1648.4
ELO
1501.0
52
ELO · Matches
49
1648.4
Current Team ELO
1501.0
1501.0
Current Opponent ELO
1648.4
147.3
Current ELO Difference
-147.3
0.70
Expected score
0.30
52
History Matches
49
0.14
Residual Mean
0.00
60.16
Overperformance
50.23
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
0.70
2.40
Goals for per game
0.90
1.10
Goals against per game
1.70
70.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
49
2.06
PPG
1.37
61.5%
Win rate
36.7%
21.2%
Draw rate
26.5%
17.3%
Loss rate
36.7%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
63.3%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
40.8%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
24
2.27
PPG
1.17
69.2%
Win rate
29.2%
19.2%
Draw rate
29.2%
11.5%
Loss rate
41.7%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
26
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.10
Goals for per game
1.06
78.8%
Scoring rate
67.3%
34.6%
BTTS rate
38.8%
2.62
Goals for per game
1.04
80.8%
Scoring rate
62.5%
26.9%
BTTS rate
45.8%
52
History Matches
49
2.10
Goals Mean
1.06
1.83
Goals Std
0.93
78.8%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
51.9%
Scored 2+ rate
32.7%
34.6%
Scored 3+ rate
4.1%
2.62
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.77
Goals against per game
1.24
46.2%
Conceding rate
61.2%
0.38
Goals against per game
1.46
34.6%
Conceding rate
75.0%
52
History Matches
49
0.77
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.09
Conceded Std
1.27
17.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.7%
9.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.4%
0.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
65.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
21.2%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
65.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
53.8%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
49
0.85
Result entropy
0.99
2.35
Goal Difference Std
1.65
15.26
Stability score
0.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
49
21
Lead Matches
13
95.2%
Lead Win Rate
84.6%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.90
8
Trailing Matches
13
50.0%
Non-loss rate
7.7%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
1.27
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.96
Rest days
189.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
32
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
18
Long Rest History Matches
16
2.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.07
1.38
Portability PPG Range
0.14
46.94
Portability Score
87.48
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO147.3
PPG0.69
GF1.03
GA-0.48
PPG1.10
PPG0.80
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate15.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate40.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches3
Goals Mean1.03
Goals Std0.90
Scored 1+ rate11.5%
Scored 2+ rate19.3%
Scored 3+ rate30.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.97
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.48
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate15.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-1.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std0.70
Stability score14.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.43
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate10.6%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate42.3%
Trailing Win Rate17.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.49
Portability PPG Range1.24
Portability Score-40.54
Rest days-103.3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.78
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.65
Current Team ELO147.3
Current Opponent ELO-147.3
Current ELO Difference294.6
Expected score0.40
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance9.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gimnástica Torrelavega

L
Amorebieta1–0Gimnástica Torrelavega1 Nov · away
Pick: Amorebieta 41% · hit
L
Ourense CF3–0Gimnástica Torrelavega25 Oct · away
Pick: Ourense CF 44% · hit
L
Gimnástica Torrelavega1–5Deportivo Alavés II18 Oct · home
Pick: Gimnástica Torrelavega 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gernika

D
Gernika0–0Marino de Luanco31 Oct · home
Pick: Marino de Luanco 36% · missed
D
Atlético Astorga1–1Gernika24 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Astorga 58% · missed
L
Gernika1–2Amorebieta17 Oct · home
Pick: Amorebieta 43% · hit
L
Gernika1–2Sestao River4 Oct · home
Pick: Sestao River 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gimnástica Torrelavega and Gernika meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Gimnástica Torrelavega win 63.8%, draw 17.7%, Gernika win 18.5%. The pick is Gimnástica Torrelavega win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.6%. Both teams to score: 48.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.