ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 10 2026

Llanera vs Bergantiños

Llanera Home · Elo 1,688
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bergantiños Away · Elo 1,511
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Llanera win
Llanera winPick
40.2%
Draw
28.1%
Bergantiños win
31.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.9%
No53.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.7%
Under 2.553.3%

How much we know

Llanera history49 matches
Bergantiños history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Llanera are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Llanera are rated 178 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,688 against 1,511. On rating alone Llanera would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • Llanera score more

    1.78 goals a game over 49 matches for Llanera, against 1.26 over 53 for Bergantiños.

  • Llanera concede fewer

    Llanera concede 0.78 a game, Bergantiños 1.11.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Llanera matches, against 45% for Bergantiños. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Llanera
Bergantiños
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1688.2
ELO
1510.7
49
ELO · Matches
53
1688.2
Current Team ELO
1510.7
1510.7
Current Opponent ELO
1688.2
177.5
Current ELO Difference
-177.5
0.74
Expected score
0.26
49
History Matches
53
0.18
Residual Mean
0.01
63.03
Overperformance
50.81
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.80
2.40
Goals for per game
2.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.60
PPG
1.40
1.70
Goals for per game
1.70
0.40
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.73
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
53
2.24
PPG
1.45
67.3%
Win rate
39.6%
22.4%
Draw rate
26.4%
10.2%
Loss rate
34.0%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
60.4%
51.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.3%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
26
2.52
PPG
1.58
78.3%
Win rate
46.2%
17.4%
Draw rate
19.2%
4.3%
Loss rate
34.6%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
53.8%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
38.5%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
7.7%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
23
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.78
Goals for per game
1.26
85.7%
Scoring rate
69.8%
36.7%
BTTS rate
49.1%
1.96
Goals for per game
1.15
95.7%
Scoring rate
69.2%
26.1%
BTTS rate
42.3%
49
History Matches
53
1.78
Goals Mean
1.26
1.30
Goals Std
1.20
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
69.8%
55.1%
Scored 2+ rate
34.0%
24.5%
Scored 3+ rate
15.1%
1.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.78
Goals against per game
1.11
46.9%
Conceding rate
67.9%
0.57
Goals against per game
0.92
30.4%
Conceding rate
65.4%
49
History Matches
53
0.78
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.09
Conceded Std
1.04
18.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.2%
6.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.4%
0.57
Venue Conceded Mean
0.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
53.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
69.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
4.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
53.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
69.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
4.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
53.1%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
53
0.76
Result entropy
0.99
1.83
Goal Difference Std
1.42
24.04
Stability score
1.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
53
17
Lead Matches
14
94.1%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.88
7
Trailing Matches
14
42.9%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
1.09
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
81.92
Rest days
189.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
37
2.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.65
19
Long Rest History Matches
15
2.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.07
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.26
Portability PPG Range
0.98
44.32
Portability Score
54.55
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO177.5
PPG0.79
GF0.51
GA-0.34
PPG0.94
PPG0.80
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate21.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate34.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.51
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate15.9%
Scored 2+ rate21.1%
Scored 3+ rate9.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.73
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate21.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.41
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.23
Goal Difference Std0.41
Stability score22.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.83
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate8.4%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate14.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.21
Portability PPG Range0.28
Portability Score-10.23
Rest days-107.3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.66
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match1.14
Current Team ELO177.5
Current Opponent ELO-177.5
Current ELO Difference355.1
Expected score0.47
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance12.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Llanera

L
Real Oviedo II2–1Llanera31 Oct · away
Pick: Real Oviedo II 47% · hit
L
Llanera1–3Compostela24 Oct · home
Pick: Llanera 40% · missed
L
Arosa4–1Llanera18 Oct · away
Pick: Arosa 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bergantiños

D
Bergantiños1–1Ourense CF1 Nov · home
Pick: Ourense CF 42% · missed
L
Eibar II3–2Bergantiños24 Oct · away
Pick: Bergantiños 37% · missed
W
Bergantiños3–0Real Oviedo II18 Oct · home
Pick: Real Oviedo II 39% · missed
W
Bergantiños3–1Coruxo4 Oct · home
Pick: Bergantiños 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Llanera and Bergantiños meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Llanera win 40.2%, draw 28.1%, Bergantiños win 31.7%. The pick is Llanera win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.7%. Both teams to score: 46.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.