ScoreProb
Premier League 2 Division One England Regular Season 2026

Arsenal U21 vs Aston Villa U21

Arsenal U21 Home · Elo 1,498
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aston Villa U21 Away · Elo 1,487
Meadow Park, Borehamwood Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Aston Villa U21 win
Arsenal U21 win
35.0%
Draw
23.8%
Aston Villa U21 winPick
41.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.6%
No39.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.7%
Under 2.533.3%

How much we know

Arsenal U21 history38 matches
Aston Villa U21 history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Aston Villa U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,498 against 1,487. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.61 goals a game over 38 matches for Arsenal U21, against 1.62 over 37 for Aston Villa U21.

  • Arsenal U21 concede fewer

    Arsenal U21 concede 1.76 a game, Aston Villa U21 2.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    66% of Arsenal U21 matches, against 70% for Aston Villa U21. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arsenal U21
Aston Villa U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1498.3
ELO
1487.0
38
ELO · Matches
37
1498.3
Current Team ELO
1487.0
1487.0
Current Opponent ELO
1498.3
11.31
Current ELO Difference
-11.31
0.52
Expected score
0.48
38
History Matches
37
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.02
48.56
Overperformance
48.41
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
2.20
2.20
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.70
1.20
Goals for per game
1.70
2.30
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
38
Matches
37
1.42
PPG
1.19
39.5%
Win rate
29.7%
23.7%
Draw rate
29.7%
36.8%
Loss rate
40.5%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
86.5%
65.8%
Over 2.5 rate
70.3%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
48.6%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
20
1.87
PPG
1.40
53.3%
Win rate
35.0%
26.7%
Draw rate
35.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
30.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
15
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.61
Goals for per game
1.62
84.2%
Scoring rate
75.7%
63.2%
BTTS rate
70.3%
1.53
Goals for per game
1.55
86.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
70.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
38
History Matches
37
1.61
Goals Mean
1.62
1.11
Goals Std
1.22
84.2%
Scored 1+ rate
75.7%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
56.8%
18.4%
Scored 3+ rate
24.3%
1.53
Venue Goals Mean
1.55
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.76
Goals against per game
2.00
76.3%
Conceding rate
89.2%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.65
66.7%
Conceding rate
85.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
38
History Matches
37
1.76
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.61
Conceded Std
1.21
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
62.2%
23.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
35.1%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
10.8%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
10.8%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
23.7%
Clean-sheet rate
10.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
38
History Matches
37
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
2.07
Goal Difference Std
1.40
2.06
Stability score
1.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
37
13
Lead Matches
12
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
58.3%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.69
13
Trailing Matches
15
38.5%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.11
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.08
Rest days
78.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
18
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.79
18
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.39
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.28
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.60
0.80
Portability PPG Range
1.45
60.48
Portability Score
45.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
38
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO11.31
PPG0.23
GF-0.02
GA-0.24
PPG-2.00
PPG0.47
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate18.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate8.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.07
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std0.40
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.50
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.67
Stability score1.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.03
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate10.9%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate11.8%
Trailing Win Rate2.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.65
Portability Score14.85
Rest days-0.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.75
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.66
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO11.31
Current Opponent ELO-11.31
Current ELO Difference22.62
Expected score0.03
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Arsenal U21

W
AFC Wimbledon1–2Arsenal U2127 Oct · away
Pick: AFC Wimbledon 71% · missed
L
Leicester City U214–1Arsenal U2124 Oct · away
Pick: Leicester City U21 59% · hit
D
Brighton U212–2Arsenal U2131 Aug · away
Pick: Brighton U21 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Aston Villa U21

L
Blackpool3–2Aston Villa U2127 Oct · away
Pick: Blackpool 64% · hit
W
Burnley U210–1Aston Villa U2117 Oct · away
Pick: Aston Villa U21 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Arsenal U21 and Aston Villa U21 meet in Premier League 2 Division One on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Meadow Park, Borehamwood. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Arsenal U21 win 35.0%, draw 23.8%, Aston Villa U21 win 41.2%. The pick is Aston Villa U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.7%. Both teams to score: 60.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.