ScoreProb
Premier League 2 Division One England Regular Season 2026

Leeds United U21 vs AFC Bournemouth U21

Leeds United U21 Home · Elo 1,445
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
AFC Bournemouth U21 Away · Elo 1,562
LNER Community Stadium, York Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Leeds United U21 win
Leeds United U21 winPick
44.6%
Draw
21.7%
AFC Bournemouth U21 win
33.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.7%
No37.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.1%
Under 2.529.9%

How much we know

Leeds United U21 history48 matches
AFC Bournemouth U21 history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Leeds United U21 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • AFC Bournemouth U21 are rated 116 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,562 against 1,445. On rating alone AFC Bournemouth U21 would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • AFC Bournemouth U21 score far more

    1.42 goals a game over 48 matches for Leeds United U21, against 2.66 over 56 for AFC Bournemouth U21.

  • Defences are close

    Leeds United U21 concede 1.94 a game, AFC Bournemouth U21 1.75.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    79% of Leeds United U21 matches, against 84% for AFC Bournemouth U21. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Leeds United U21
AFC Bournemouth U21
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1445.5
ELO
1561.8
48
ELO · Matches
56
1445.5
Current Team ELO
1561.8
1561.8
Current Opponent ELO
1445.5
-116.3
Current ELO Difference
116.3
0.34
Expected score
0.66
48
History Matches
56
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.06
44.95
Overperformance
54.06
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
2.60
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.30
1.60
Goals for per game
2.50
2.50
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.69
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
1.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.69
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
56
1.19
PPG
1.88
33.3%
Win rate
58.9%
18.8%
Draw rate
10.7%
47.9%
Loss rate
30.4%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
91.1%
79.2%
Over 2.5 rate
83.9%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
69.6%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
27
1.20
PPG
1.44
35.0%
Win rate
44.4%
15.0%
Draw rate
11.1%
50.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
92.6%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
85.2%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
63.0%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
20
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.42
Goals for per game
2.66
77.1%
Scoring rate
91.1%
62.5%
BTTS rate
71.4%
1.40
Goals for per game
2.07
80.0%
Scoring rate
85.2%
60.0%
BTTS rate
81.5%
4.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
56
1.42
Goals Mean
2.66
1.02
Goals Std
1.71
77.1%
Scored 1+ rate
91.1%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
75.0%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
44.6%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
2.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.94
Goals against per game
1.75
83.3%
Conceding rate
80.4%
1.80
Goals against per game
2.19
80.0%
Conceding rate
96.3%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
56
1.94
Conceded Mean
1.75
1.38
Conceded Std
1.35
56.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.8%
37.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.8%
1.80
Venue Conceded Mean
2.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
8.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
3.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
22.9%
Failed-to-score rate
8.9%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
3.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
56
0.94
Result entropy
0.83
1.95
Goal Difference Std
2.40
6.01
Stability score
16.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
56
12
Lead Matches
23
58.3%
Lead Win Rate
87.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.88
22
Trailing Matches
16
31.8%
Non-loss rate
43.8%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
31.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
1.23
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.43
1.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
78.75
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
23
Normal Rest History Matches
30
0.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.13
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
11
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.89
Portability PPG Std
0.37
3.00
Portability PPG Range
0.82
35.85
Portability Score
57.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-116.3
PPG-0.69
GF-1.24
GA0.19
PPG0.00
PPG-0.24
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate14.0%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Failed-to-score rate5.2%
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-1.24
Goals Std-0.70
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate-0.32
Venue Goals Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.67
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.19
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate4.5%
Conceded 3+ rate10.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std-0.45
Stability score-10.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.13
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.29
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.52
Portability PPG Range2.18
Portability Score-21.52
Rest days-1.75
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.22
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO-116.3
Current Opponent ELO116.3
Current ELO Difference-232.6
Expected score-0.32
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-9.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Leeds United U21

L
Hartlepool3–1Leeds United U213 Nov · away
Pick: Hartlepool 41% · hit
D
Leeds United U212–2Stoke City U2131 Oct · home
Pick: Leeds United U21 56% · missed
L
Oldham4–2Leeds United U2113 Oct · away
Pick: Oldham 56% · hit
L
Tamworth1–0Leeds United U216 Oct · away
Pick: Tamworth 73% · hit
L
Liverpool U212–1Leeds United U2130 Aug · away
Pick: Leeds United U21 42% · missed

AFC Bournemouth U21

W
AFC Bournemouth U213–2Cardiff City U212 Nov · home
Pick: AFC Bournemouth U21 42% · hit
L
AFC Bournemouth U213–4Brentford U2126 Oct · home
Pick: Brentford U21 42% · hit
D
Brighton U213–3AFC Bournemouth U2118 Oct · away
Pick: AFC Bournemouth U21 43% · missed
W
AFC Bournemouth U216–1Plymouth U2112 Oct · home
Pick: AFC Bournemouth U21 62% · hit
W
AFC Bournemouth U213–1Middlesbrough U2131 Aug · home
Pick: AFC Bournemouth U21 64% · hit

About this match

Leeds United U21 and AFC Bournemouth U21 meet in Premier League 2 Division One on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at LNER Community Stadium, York. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Leeds United U21 win 44.6%, draw 21.7%, AFC Bournemouth U21 win 33.7%. The pick is Leeds United U21 win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.1%. Both teams to score: 62.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.