ScoreProb
Championnat National Benin Round 7 2026

AS Cotonou vs Espoir Savalou

AS Cotonou Home · Elo 1,536
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Espoir Savalou Away · Elo 1,561
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
AS Cotonou win
31.7%
DrawPick
40.7%
Espoir Savalou win
27.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes41.3%
No58.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.528.8%
Under 2.571.2%

How much we know

AS Cotonou history37 matches
Espoir Savalou history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,536 against 1,561. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Espoir Savalou score more

    0.86 goals a game over 37 matches for AS Cotonou, against 1.05 over 41 for Espoir Savalou.

  • AS Cotonou concede fewer

    AS Cotonou concede 0.57 a game, Espoir Savalou 0.83.

  • Espoir Savalou games more often go over 2.5 goals

    8% of AS Cotonou matches, against 29% for Espoir Savalou. The model puts this match at 29% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AS Cotonou
Espoir Savalou
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1536.1
ELO
1560.8
37
ELO · Matches
41
1536.1
Current Team ELO
1560.8
1560.8
Current Opponent ELO
1536.1
-24.75
Current ELO Difference
24.75
0.46
Expected score
0.54
37
History Matches
41
0.04
Residual Mean
0.07
52.60
Overperformance
54.47
-0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.20
0.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.60
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.90
Goals against per game
1.10
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
41
1.62
PPG
1.61
43.2%
Win rate
41.5%
32.4%
Draw rate
36.6%
24.3%
Loss rate
22.0%
45.9%
Over 1.5 rate
56.1%
8.1%
Over 2.5 rate
29.3%
2.7%
Over 3.5 rate
12.2%
1.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
22
1.71
PPG
1.23
47.1%
Win rate
22.7%
29.4%
Draw rate
54.5%
23.5%
Loss rate
22.7%
47.1%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
11.8%
Over 2.5 rate
18.2%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
9.1%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.11
17
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.86
Goals for per game
1.05
62.2%
Scoring rate
68.3%
21.6%
BTTS rate
39.0%
0.94
Goals for per game
0.82
58.8%
Scoring rate
54.5%
17.6%
BTTS rate
31.8%
37
History Matches
41
0.86
Goals Mean
1.05
0.81
Goals Std
0.94
62.2%
Scored 1+ rate
68.3%
21.6%
Scored 2+ rate
26.8%
2.7%
Scored 3+ rate
9.8%
0.94
Venue Goals Mean
0.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.57
Goals against per game
0.83
45.9%
Conceding rate
53.7%
0.47
Goals against per game
0.77
41.2%
Conceding rate
50.0%
37
History Matches
41
0.57
Conceded Mean
0.83
0.68
Conceded Std
0.93
10.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.3%
0.47
Venue Conceded Mean
0.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
54.1%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
37.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.7%
58.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
54.1%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
37.8%
Failed-to-score rate
31.7%
58.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
54.1%
Clean-sheet rate
46.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
41
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.21
Goal Difference Std
1.22
2.46
Stability score
2.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
21
Eligible Matches
22
4
Lead Matches
5
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.73
4
Trailing Matches
6
25.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
22
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
140.0
Rest days
140.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
20
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
16
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.17
1.05
Portability PPG Range
0.33
48.70
Portability Score
75.05
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-24.75
PPG0.01
GF-0.18
GA-0.26
PPG0.48
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate8.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.18
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.00
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score-0.53
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.37
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate40.0%
Lead Points Retention0.27
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate8.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.36
Portability PPG Range0.72
Portability Score-26.35
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO-24.75
Current Opponent ELO24.75
Current ELO Difference-49.51
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AS Cotonou

L
Buffles3–0AS Cotonou1 Nov · away
Pick: Draw 45% · missed
D
AS Cotonou0–0Kraké25 Oct · home
Pick: AS Cotonou 37% · missed
D
Loto Popo1–1AS Cotonou18 Oct · away
Pick: Loto Popo 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Espoir Savalou

D
Espoir Savalou1–1Cavaliers1 Nov · home
Pick: Espoir Savalou 37% · missed
L
Bani Gansè4–1Espoir Savalou24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 38% · missed
D
Espoir Savalou1–1Buffles17 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

AS Cotonou and Espoir Savalou meet in Championnat National on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: AS Cotonou win 31.7%, draw 40.7%, Espoir Savalou win 27.6%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 28.8%. Both teams to score: 41.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.