ScoreProb
Ligue 1 Congo - Kinshasa Round 4 2026

AS New Soger vs CS Manika

AS New Soger Home · Elo 1,448
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
CS Manika Away · Elo 1,507
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: CS Manika win
AS New Soger win
32.3%
Draw
32.4%
CS Manika winPick
35.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.4%
No53.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.6%
Under 2.562.4%

How much we know

AS New Soger history23 matches
CS Manika history24 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why CS Manika are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • CS Manika are rated 59 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,507 against 1,448. On rating alone CS Manika would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • AS New Soger score more

    0.87 goals a game over 23 matches for AS New Soger, against 0.75 over 24 for CS Manika.

  • CS Manika concede fewer

    AS New Soger concede 1.35 a game, CS Manika 0.75.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    35% of AS New Soger matches, against 29% for CS Manika. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AS New Soger
CS Manika
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1447.9
ELO
1507.1
23
ELO · Matches
24
1447.9
Current Team ELO
1507.1
1507.1
Current Opponent ELO
1447.9
-59.13
Current ELO Difference
59.13
0.42
Expected score
0.58
23
History Matches
24
-0.11
Residual Mean
0.02
44.27
Overperformance
50.84
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.60
0.40
Goals for per game
1.00
2.20
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.70
0.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.30
Goals against per game
0.60
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
23
Matches
24
1.04
PPG
1.25
30.4%
Win rate
25.0%
13.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
56.5%
Loss rate
25.0%
56.5%
Over 1.5 rate
45.8%
34.8%
Over 2.5 rate
29.2%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
8.3%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
12
1.58
PPG
0.83
50.0%
Win rate
8.3%
8.3%
Draw rate
58.3%
41.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.75
12
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.87
Goals for per game
0.75
52.2%
Scoring rate
54.2%
30.4%
BTTS rate
41.7%
1.42
Goals for per game
0.83
75.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
41.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
23
History Matches
24
0.87
Goals Mean
0.75
0.99
Goals Std
0.78
52.2%
Scored 1+ rate
54.2%
26.1%
Scored 2+ rate
20.8%
8.7%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
0.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.35
Goals against per game
0.75
69.6%
Conceding rate
54.2%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.17
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
23
History Matches
24
1.35
Conceded Mean
0.75
1.46
Conceded Std
0.83
30.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
16.7%
17.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.2%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
47.8%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
47.8%
Failed-to-score rate
45.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
45.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
23
History Matches
24
0.86
Result entropy
0.95
1.77
Goal Difference Std
0.87
13.51
Stability score
5.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
20
Eligible Matches
22
1
Lead Matches
3
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
7
Trailing Matches
3
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
20
Halftime Coverage Matches
22
0.25
First Half Goals For Mean
0.27
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.32
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
209.0
Rest days
214.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
11
Normal Rest History Matches
9
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
6
Long Rest History Matches
11
0.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
23
Clean History Matches
24
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-59.13
PPG-0.21
GF0.12
GA0.60
PPG0.75
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate2.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate5.3%
Scored 3+ rate8.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.60
Conceded Std0.63
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate13.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.61
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.90
Stability score8.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.83
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-5.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.47
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.03
Current Team ELO-59.13
Current Opponent ELO59.13
Current ELO Difference-118.3
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-6.56
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AS New Soger

D
Simba0–0AS New Soger30 Oct · away
Pick: Simba 63% · missed
D
AS New Soger0–0Don Bosco26 Oct · home
Pick: Don Bosco 47% · missed
D
Saint Eloi Lupopo0–0AS New Soger20 Oct · away
Pick: Saint Eloi Lupopo 70% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

CS Manika

L
CS Manika0–1Malole30 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 38% · missed
D
Saint-Luc0–0CS Manika26 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

AS New Soger and CS Manika meet in Ligue 1 on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: AS New Soger win 32.3%, draw 32.4%, CS Manika win 35.3%. The pick is CS Manika win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.6%. Both teams to score: 46.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.