ScoreProb
Ligue 1 Congo - Kinshasa Round 4 2026

Sanga Balende vs Blessing

Sanga Balende Home · Elo 1,462
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Blessing Away · Elo 1,503
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sanga Balende win
Sanga Balende winPick
48.3%
Draw
30.1%
Blessing win
21.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.9%
No57.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.534.0%
Under 2.566.0%

How much we know

Sanga Balende history48 matches
Blessing history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sanga Balende are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Blessing are rated 41 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,503 against 1,462. On rating alone Blessing would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Blessing score far more

    0.73 goals a game over 48 matches for Sanga Balende, against 1.23 over 35 for Blessing.

  • Blessing concede fewer

    Sanga Balende concede 1.08 a game, Blessing 0.94.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    31% of Sanga Balende matches, against 34% for Blessing. The model puts this match at 34% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sanga Balende
Blessing
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1462.3
ELO
1503.1
48
ELO · Matches
35
1462.3
Current Team ELO
1503.1
1503.1
Current Opponent ELO
1462.3
-40.77
Current ELO Difference
40.77
0.44
Expected score
0.56
48
History Matches
35
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.00
46.77
Overperformance
49.74
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.40
1.00
Goals for per game
0.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.70
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.10
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.74
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
35
1.10
PPG
1.40
27.1%
Win rate
37.1%
29.2%
Draw rate
28.6%
43.8%
Loss rate
34.3%
54.2%
Over 1.5 rate
65.7%
31.3%
Over 2.5 rate
34.3%
8.3%
Over 3.5 rate
17.1%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
19
1.59
PPG
0.95
45.5%
Win rate
21.1%
22.7%
Draw rate
31.6%
31.8%
Loss rate
47.4%
45.5%
Over 1.5 rate
57.9%
22.7%
Over 2.5 rate
36.8%
4.5%
Over 3.5 rate
15.8%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
22
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.73
Goals for per game
1.23
52.1%
Scoring rate
62.9%
31.3%
BTTS rate
40.0%
0.95
Goals for per game
0.84
59.1%
Scoring rate
47.4%
22.7%
BTTS rate
42.1%
48
History Matches
35
0.73
Goals Mean
1.23
0.86
Goals Std
1.31
52.1%
Scored 1+ rate
62.9%
14.6%
Scored 2+ rate
37.1%
6.3%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
0.95
Venue Goals Mean
0.84
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.08
Goals against per game
0.94
66.7%
Conceding rate
60.0%
0.64
Goals against per game
1.21
50.0%
Conceding rate
73.7%
48
History Matches
35
1.08
Conceded Mean
0.94
1.04
Conceded Std
0.95
27.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.7%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.6%
0.64
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
47.9%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
52.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
47.9%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.3%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
52.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
35
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.51
Goal Difference Std
1.58
2.17
Stability score
0.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
27
8
Lead Matches
7
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
1.00
15
Trailing Matches
6
13.3%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
27
0.31
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
197.0
Rest days
210.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
11
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.40
24
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
12
Long Rest History Matches
10
0.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.37
0.35
Portability PPG Range
0.74
74.07
Portability Score
57.39
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-40.77
PPG-0.30
GF-0.50
GA0.14
PPG0.64
PPG1.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate10.8%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate23.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches13
Goals Mean-0.50
Goals Std-0.45
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.23
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.00
History Matches13
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate1.4%
Conceded 3+ rate3.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches13
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score1.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.52
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.39
Portability Score16.68
Rest days-13.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match0.60
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Current Team ELO-40.77
Current Opponent ELO40.77
Current ELO Difference-81.55
Expected score-0.12
History Matches13
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sanga Balende

L
Lubumbashi Sport1–0Sanga Balende30 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 39% · missed
D
Sanga Balende1–1Tanganyika26 Oct · home
Pick: Sanga Balende 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Blessing

W
Blessing2–1Lubumbashi Sport26 Oct · home
Pick: Blessing 48% · hit
L
Tanganyika2–1Blessing20 Oct · away
Pick: Tanganyika 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sanga Balende and Blessing meet in Ligue 1 on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Sanga Balende win 48.3%, draw 30.1%, Blessing win 21.6%. The pick is Sanga Balende win. Over 2.5 goals: 34.0%. Both teams to score: 42.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.