ScoreProb
Serie B Italy Round 11 2026

Ascoli vs Palermo

Ascoli Home · Elo 1,616
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Palermo Away · Elo 1,598
Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ascoli win
Ascoli winPick
36.3%
Draw
34.1%
Palermo win
29.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.9%
No50.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.0%
Under 2.555.0%

How much we know

Ascoli history65 matches
Palermo history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Ascoli are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,616 against 1,598. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.52 goals a game over 65 matches for Ascoli, against 1.66 over 71 for Palermo.

  • Ascoli concede fewer

    Ascoli concede 0.86 a game, Palermo 1.03.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Ascoli matches, against 51% for Palermo. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ascoli
Palermo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1616.4
ELO
1598.3
65
ELO · Matches
71
1616.4
Current Team ELO
1598.3
1598.3
Current Opponent ELO
1616.4
18.09
Current ELO Difference
-18.09
0.53
Expected score
0.47
65
History Matches
71
0.08
Residual Mean
0.07
56.47
Overperformance
55.61
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.70
1.70
Goals for per game
1.70
1.20
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.95
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
71
1.75
PPG
1.70
50.8%
Win rate
47.9%
23.1%
Draw rate
26.8%
26.2%
Loss rate
25.4%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
77.5%
50.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.7%
21.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.9%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
34
2.03
PPG
1.21
61.3%
Win rate
29.4%
19.4%
Draw rate
32.4%
19.4%
Loss rate
38.2%
67.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
58.1%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
14.7%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
31
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.52
Goals for per game
1.66
73.8%
Scoring rate
80.3%
43.1%
BTTS rate
46.5%
1.77
Goals for per game
1.18
77.4%
Scoring rate
70.6%
35.5%
BTTS rate
52.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
65
History Matches
71
1.52
Goals Mean
1.66
1.30
Goals Std
1.43
73.8%
Scored 1+ rate
80.3%
44.6%
Scored 2+ rate
46.5%
24.6%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
1.77
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.86
Goals against per game
1.03
56.9%
Conceding rate
60.6%
0.68
Goals against per game
1.21
45.2%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
65
History Matches
71
0.86
Conceded Mean
1.03
0.96
Conceded Std
1.01
21.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.4%
4.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.9%
0.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
54.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
54.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
71
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.89
5.94
Stability score
4.13
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
71
18
Lead Matches
35
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.86
10
Trailing Matches
16
60.0%
Non-loss rate
43.8%
40.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.10
Rest days
75.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
34
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
28
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.77
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
8
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.52
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.23
Portability PPG Range
0.96
48.94
Portability Score
55.72
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO18.09
PPG0.05
GF-0.14
GA-0.17
PPG0.00
PPG0.83
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Failed-to-score rate6.4%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate31.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.76
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score1.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.63
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-17
Lead Win Rate20.0%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate16.3%
Trailing Win Rate33.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.28
Portability Score-6.77
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.25
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Current Team ELO18.09
Current Opponent ELO-18.09
Current ELO Difference36.18
Expected score0.05
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ascoli

D
Arezzo0–0Ascoli1 Nov · away
Pick: Arezzo 44% · missed
W
Ascoli2–0Sampdoria27 Oct · home
Pick: Ascoli 54% · hit
W
Catanzaro1–6Ascoli24 Oct · away
Pick: Ascoli 39% · hit
D
Ascoli1–1Empoli17 Oct · home
Pick: Ascoli 43% · missed
D
Ascoli1–1Carrarese29 Aug · home
Pick: Ascoli 48% · missed

Palermo

W
Palermo3–1Vicenza Virtus1 Nov · home
Pick: Palermo 40% · hit
D
Pisa3–3Palermo28 Oct · away
Pick: Palermo 57% · missed
W
Palermo2–1Carrarese25 Oct · home
Pick: Palermo 64% · hit
W
Mantova0–2Palermo17 Oct · away
Pick: Mantova 39% · missed
W
Arezzo2–3Palermo30 Aug · away
Pick: Arezzo 39% · missed

About this match

Ascoli and Palermo meet in Serie B on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Ascoli win 36.3%, draw 34.1%, Palermo win 29.6%. The pick is Ascoli win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.0%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.