ScoreProb
Serie B Italy Round 11 2026

Benevento vs Avellino

Benevento Home · Elo 1,638
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Avellino Away · Elo 1,512
Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Benevento win
Benevento winPick
51.0%
Draw
28.0%
Avellino win
21.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.0%
No46.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.7%
Under 2.549.3%

How much we know

Benevento history63 matches
Avellino history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Benevento are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Benevento are rated 126 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,638 against 1,512. On rating alone Benevento would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Benevento score more

    1.71 goals a game over 63 matches for Benevento, against 1.34 over 64 for Avellino.

  • Benevento concede fewer

    Benevento concede 0.98 a game, Avellino 1.31.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Benevento matches, against 52% for Avellino. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Benevento
Avellino
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1638.4
ELO
1512.5
63
ELO · Matches
64
1638.4
Current Team ELO
1512.5
1512.5
Current Opponent ELO
1638.4
126.0
Current ELO Difference
-126.0
0.67
Expected score
0.33
63
History Matches
64
0.10
Residual Mean
0.01
57.86
Overperformance
50.76
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
2.20
Goals for per game
2.00
2.40
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.30
2.10
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.56
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.79
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
63
Matches
64
1.87
PPG
1.59
54.0%
Win rate
46.9%
25.4%
Draw rate
18.8%
20.6%
Loss rate
34.4%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
49.2%
Over 2.5 rate
51.6%
27.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.9%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
31
2.00
PPG
1.26
56.7%
Win rate
35.5%
30.0%
Draw rate
19.4%
13.3%
Loss rate
45.2%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
43.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.4%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
16.1%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
30
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
1.34
82.5%
Scoring rate
71.9%
50.8%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.73
Goals for per game
1.19
83.3%
Scoring rate
64.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
45.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
64
1.71
Goals Mean
1.34
1.36
Goals Std
1.18
82.5%
Scored 1+ rate
71.9%
47.6%
Scored 2+ rate
40.6%
22.2%
Scored 3+ rate
15.6%
1.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.98
Goals against per game
1.31
61.9%
Conceding rate
76.6%
0.87
Goals against per game
1.52
56.7%
Conceding rate
80.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
63
History Matches
64
0.98
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.05
Conceded Std
1.18
25.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.3%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.6%
0.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
17.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
43.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
63
History Matches
64
0.92
Result entropy
0.94
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.72
8.38
Stability score
5.69
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
64
23
Lead Matches
22
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
86.4%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.89
10
Trailing Matches
14
40.0%
Non-loss rate
7.1%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.98
Rest days
76.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
35
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
25
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
9
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.64
1.26
Portability PPG Range
1.53
47.37
Portability Score
43.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
63
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO126.0
PPG0.28
GF0.37
GA-0.33
PPG0.00
PPG0.74
PPG0.60
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate14.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate24.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.37
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate10.7%
Scored 2+ rate7.0%
Scored 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate14.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.59
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score2.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.88
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate32.9%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.27
Portability Score3.40
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.38
Current Team ELO126.0
Current Opponent ELO-126.0
Current ELO Difference251.9
Expected score0.35
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance7.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Benevento

L
Cremonese2–0Benevento31 Oct · away
Pick: Benevento 35% · missed
D
Benevento1–1Catanzaro27 Oct · home
Pick: Benevento 47% · missed
W
Arezzo0–3Benevento24 Oct · away
Pick: Arezzo 58% · missed
D
Benevento2–2Vicenza Virtus17 Oct · home
Pick: Vicenza Virtus 39% · missed
D
Benevento1–1Sudtirol30 Aug · home
Pick: Benevento 39% · missed

Avellino

W
Avellino2–0Pisa1 Nov · home
Pick: Avellino 51% · hit
D
Virtus Entella1–1Avellino27 Oct · away
Pick: Virtus Entella 45% · missed
L
Avellino0–1Padova24 Oct · home
Pick: Avellino 45% · missed
D
Cesena1–1Avellino18 Oct · away
Pick: Cesena 46% · missed
W
Avellino3–0Vicenza Virtus29 Aug · home
Pick: Vicenza Virtus 45% · missed

About this match

Benevento and Avellino meet in Serie B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Benevento. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Benevento win 51.0%, draw 28.0%, Avellino win 21.0%. The pick is Benevento win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.7%. Both teams to score: 54.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.