ScoreProb
Serie B Italy Round 11 2026

Pisa vs Sudtirol

Pisa Home · Elo 1,391
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sudtirol Away · Elo 1,480
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sudtirol win
Pisa win
31.3%
Draw
27.3%
Sudtirol winPick
41.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.5%
No52.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.6%
Under 2.553.4%

How much we know

Pisa history66 matches
Sudtirol history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sudtirol are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sudtirol are rated 88 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,480 against 1,391. On rating alone Sudtirol would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.09 goals a game over 66 matches for Pisa, against 1.13 over 62 for Sudtirol.

  • Sudtirol concede fewer

    Pisa concede 1.52 a game, Sudtirol 1.21.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Pisa matches, against 44% for Sudtirol. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pisa
Sudtirol
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1391.3
ELO
1479.8
66
ELO · Matches
62
1391.3
Current Team ELO
1479.8
1479.8
Current Opponent ELO
1391.3
-88.42
Current ELO Difference
88.42
0.38
Expected score
0.62
66
History Matches
62
-0.08
Residual Mean
-0.01
44.02
Overperformance
48.99
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.10
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.91
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.85
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
62
0.95
PPG
1.23
22.7%
Win rate
25.8%
27.3%
Draw rate
45.2%
50.0%
Loss rate
29.0%
65.2%
Over 1.5 rate
71.0%
51.5%
Over 2.5 rate
43.5%
30.3%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
30
1.09
PPG
0.97
29.4%
Win rate
16.7%
20.6%
Draw rate
46.7%
50.0%
Loss rate
36.7%
55.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.7%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
20.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
34
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
1.13
56.1%
Scoring rate
67.7%
45.5%
BTTS rate
56.5%
1.09
Goals for per game
1.17
55.9%
Scoring rate
70.0%
41.2%
BTTS rate
63.3%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
66
History Matches
62
1.09
Goals Mean
1.13
1.30
Goals Std
1.08
56.1%
Scored 1+ rate
67.7%
31.8%
Scored 2+ rate
30.6%
12.1%
Scored 3+ rate
9.7%
1.09
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.52
Goals against per game
1.21
81.8%
Conceding rate
72.6%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.53
76.5%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
66
History Matches
62
1.52
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.25
Conceded Std
1.14
39.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.0%
19.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
43.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
44.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
43.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
44.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
27.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
62
0.94
Result entropy
0.97
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.54
5.55
Stability score
2.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
62
15
Lead Matches
16
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
56.3%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.69
22
Trailing Matches
22
13.6%
Non-loss rate
31.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
37
0.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.97
25
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.26
1.34
Portability PPG Range
0.53
47.07
Portability Score
65.57
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-88.42
PPG-0.27
GF-0.04
GA0.31
PPG-3.00
PPG0.12
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate11.7%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Failed-to-score rate14.1%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate1.2%
Scored 3+ rate2.4%
Venue Goals Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std1.24
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate10.4%
Conceded 3+ rate5.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.05
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score2.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.57
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate3.8%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range0.81
Portability Score-18.50
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Current Team ELO-88.42
Current Opponent ELO88.42
Current ELO Difference-176.8
Expected score-0.25
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pisa

L
Avellino2–0Pisa1 Nov · away
Pick: Avellino 51% · hit
D
Pisa3–3Palermo28 Oct · home
Pick: Palermo 57% · missed
D
Hellas Verona1–1Pisa25 Oct · away
Pick: Hellas Verona 49% · missed
W
Pisa3–1Cremonese17 Oct · home
Pick: Pisa 41% · hit
W
Pisa2–1Catanzaro30 Aug · home
Pick: Pisa 39% · hit

Sudtirol

D
Sudtirol1–1Cesena31 Oct · home
Pick: Sudtirol 50% · missed
L
Padova2–0Sudtirol27 Oct · away
Pick: Padova 36% · hit
D
Sudtirol1–1Sampdoria24 Oct · home
Pick: Sudtirol 47% · missed
L
Juve Stabia3–0Sudtirol18 Oct · away
Pick: Juve Stabia 40% · hit
D
Benevento1–1Sudtirol30 Aug · away
Pick: Benevento 39% · missed

About this match

Pisa and Sudtirol meet in Serie B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Pisa win 31.3%, draw 27.3%, Sudtirol win 41.3%. The pick is Sudtirol win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.6%. Both teams to score: 47.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.