ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone A Italy Group A - 11 2026

Asti vs Sanremese

Asti Home · Elo 1,477
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sanremese Away · Elo 1,529
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Asti win
Asti winPick
42.3%
Draw
32.0%
Sanremese win
25.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.1%
No52.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.1%
Under 2.558.9%

How much we know

Asti history53 matches
Sanremese history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Asti are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sanremese are rated 52 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,529 against 1,477. On rating alone Sanremese would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.98 goals a game over 53 matches for Asti, against 1.09 over 46 for Sanremese.

  • Sanremese concede fewer

    Asti concede 1.21 a game, Sanremese 0.91.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    32% of Asti matches, against 28% for Sanremese. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Asti
Sanremese
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1476.9
ELO
1529.0
53
ELO · Matches
46
1476.9
Current Team ELO
1529.0
1529.0
Current Opponent ELO
1476.9
-52.03
Current ELO Difference
52.03
0.43
Expected score
0.57
53
History Matches
46
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.03
48.40
Overperformance
52.18
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.70
1.20
Goals for per game
1.30
1.20
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
46
1.17
PPG
1.43
28.3%
Win rate
37.0%
32.1%
Draw rate
32.6%
39.6%
Loss rate
30.4%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
60.9%
32.1%
Over 2.5 rate
28.3%
17.0%
Over 3.5 rate
13.0%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
23
1.15
PPG
1.57
26.9%
Win rate
43.5%
34.6%
Draw rate
26.1%
38.5%
Loss rate
30.4%
65.4%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
23.1%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
7.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
26
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.98
Goals for per game
1.09
71.7%
Scoring rate
71.7%
49.1%
BTTS rate
45.7%
0.96
Goals for per game
1.26
69.2%
Scoring rate
73.9%
46.2%
BTTS rate
47.8%
53
History Matches
46
0.98
Goals Mean
1.09
0.76
Goals Std
0.88
71.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.7%
24.5%
Scored 2+ rate
30.4%
1.9%
Scored 3+ rate
6.5%
0.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.21
Goals against per game
0.91
69.8%
Conceding rate
63.0%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.09
69.2%
Conceding rate
65.2%
53
History Matches
46
1.21
Conceded Mean
0.91
1.17
Conceded Std
1.00
30.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
17.4%
13.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.5%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.8%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
30.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
46
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.29
0.90
Stability score
0.30
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
46
11
Lead Matches
9
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.81
14
Trailing Matches
9
35.7%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.0
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
38
Normal Rest History Matches
32
0.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.66
11
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.00
0.25
Portability PPG Range
0.01
81.07
Portability Score
99.12
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-52.03
PPG-0.26
GF-0.11
GA0.29
PPG-0.41
PPG0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate4.7%
History Matches7
Goals Mean-0.11
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.40
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate12.8%
Conceded 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.16
Stability score0.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate24.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.24
Portability Score-18.04
Rest days-7.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.64
Current Team ELO-52.03
Current Opponent ELO52.03
Current ELO Difference-104.1
Expected score-0.15
History Matches7
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Asti

L
Asti0–3Borgosesia25 Oct · home
Pick: Asti 63% · missed
D
Derthona1–1Asti18 Oct · away
Pick: Asti 38% · missed
W
Asti2–0Millesimo4 Oct · home
Pick: Asti 63% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sanremese

W
Sant'Angelo0–1Sanremese28 Oct · away
Pick: Sant'Angelo 43% · missed
D
Millesimo1–1Sanremese24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 40% · hit
W
Sanremese1–0Sestri Levante18 Oct · home
Pick: Sestri Levante 39% · missed
W
Sanremese5–2Millesimo7 Oct · home
Pick: Sanremese 61% · hit
W
Sanremese3–0Bra4 Oct · home
Pick: Bra 39% · missed

About this match

Asti and Sanremese meet in Serie D - Girone A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Asti win 42.3%, draw 32.0%, Sanremese win 25.8%. The pick is Asti win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.1%. Both teams to score: 47.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.