ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone A Italy Group A - 11 2026

Sestri Levante vs Bra

Sestri Levante Home · Elo 1,521
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bra Away · Elo 1,451
Giuseppe Sivori, Sestri Levante Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sestri Levante win
Sestri Levante winPick
42.5%
Draw
23.1%
Bra win
34.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.2%
No46.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.6%
Under 2.545.4%

How much we know

Sestri Levante history52 matches
Bra history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sestri Levante are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sestri Levante are rated 71 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,521 against 1,451. On rating alone Sestri Levante would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Sestri Levante score more

    1.44 goals a game over 52 matches for Sestri Levante, against 1.17 over 58 for Bra.

  • Sestri Levante concede fewer

    Sestri Levante concede 1.10 a game, Bra 1.52.

  • Bra games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of Sestri Levante matches, against 57% for Bra. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sestri Levante
Bra
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.4
ELO
1450.7
52
ELO · Matches
58
1521.4
Current Team ELO
1450.7
1450.7
Current Opponent ELO
1521.4
70.79
Current ELO Difference
-70.79
0.60
Expected score
0.40
52
History Matches
58
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.04
50.95
Overperformance
46.70
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.70
1.40
Goals for per game
0.90
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
58
1.42
PPG
1.10
38.5%
Win rate
27.6%
26.9%
Draw rate
27.6%
34.6%
Loss rate
44.8%
71.2%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
56.9%
26.9%
Over 3.5 rate
25.9%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
30
1.33
PPG
0.80
33.3%
Win rate
16.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
30.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
53.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.7%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
24
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.44
Goals for per game
1.17
67.3%
Scoring rate
81.0%
51.9%
BTTS rate
69.0%
1.46
Goals for per game
0.97
70.8%
Scoring rate
73.3%
58.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
52
History Matches
58
1.44
Goals Mean
1.17
1.45
Goals Std
0.77
67.3%
Scored 1+ rate
81.0%
40.4%
Scored 2+ rate
32.8%
19.2%
Scored 3+ rate
3.4%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.10
Goals against per game
1.52
76.9%
Conceding rate
82.8%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.57
79.2%
Conceding rate
86.7%
52
History Matches
58
1.10
Conceded Mean
1.52
0.93
Conceded Std
1.13
21.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.8%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.5%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
58
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.46
0.97
Stability score
2.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
58
19
Lead Matches
16
68.4%
Lead Win Rate
56.3%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.65
10
Trailing Matches
17
10.0%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.94
Rest days
175.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.49
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
14
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.83
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.34
0.71
Portability PPG Range
0.82
58.56
Portability Score
59.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO70.79
PPG0.32
GF0.27
GA-0.42
PPG0.53
PPG-0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Failed-to-score rate13.7%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Failed-to-score rate2.5%
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std0.68
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate7.6%
Scored 3+ rate15.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.99
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.42
Conceded Std-0.21
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.62
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score-1.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.46
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate12.2%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.12
Portability Score-0.77
Rest days-94.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.53
Current Team ELO70.79
Current Opponent ELO-70.79
Current ELO Difference141.6
Expected score0.20
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sestri Levante

D
Ligorna0–0Sestri Levante1 Nov · away
Pick: Ligorna 39% · missed
D
Sestri Levante0–0Saluzzo25 Oct · home
Pick: Sestri Levante 54% · missed
L
Sanremese1–0Sestri Levante18 Oct · away
Pick: Sestri Levante 39% · missed
W
Sestri Levante1–0Pistoiese7 Oct · home
Pick: Pistoiese 44% · missed
W
Borgosesia0–1Sestri Levante4 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed

Bra

L
Chisola5–1Bra1 Nov · away
Pick: Chisola 38% · hit
D
Bra0–0Derthona25 Oct · home
Pick: Bra 50% · missed
L
Sanremese3–0Bra4 Oct · away
Pick: Bra 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sestri Levante and Bra meet in Serie D - Girone A on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Giuseppe Sivori, Sestri Levante. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sestri Levante win 42.5%, draw 23.1%, Bra win 34.4%. The pick is Sestri Levante win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.6%. Both teams to score: 53.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.