ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone B Italy Girone B - 13 2026

Atalanta II vs Reggiana

Atalanta II Home · Elo 1,494
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Reggiana Away · Elo 1,438
Stadio Comunale Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atalanta II win
Atalanta II winPick
42.6%
Draw
25.5%
Reggiana win
31.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.9%
No45.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.2%
Under 2.548.8%

How much we know

Atalanta II history66 matches
Reggiana history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Atalanta II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atalanta II are rated 56 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,494 against 1,438. On rating alone Atalanta II would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Atalanta II score more

    1.48 goals a game over 66 matches for Atalanta II, against 1.08 over 59 for Reggiana.

  • Defences are close

    Atalanta II concede 1.39 a game, Reggiana 1.51.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Atalanta II matches, against 51% for Reggiana. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atalanta II
Reggiana
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1494.5
ELO
1438.2
66
ELO · Matches
59
1494.5
Current Team ELO
1438.2
1438.2
Current Opponent ELO
1494.5
56.33
Current ELO Difference
-56.33
0.58
Expected score
0.42
66
History Matches
59
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.06
48.86
Overperformance
45.79
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
0.90
1.30
Goals for per game
0.80
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
59
1.26
PPG
1.10
31.8%
Win rate
27.1%
30.3%
Draw rate
28.8%
37.9%
Loss rate
44.1%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
76.3%
48.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.8%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.1%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
31
1.28
PPG
0.81
31.0%
Win rate
19.4%
34.5%
Draw rate
22.6%
34.5%
Loss rate
58.1%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
34.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.8%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.31
29
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.48
Goals for per game
1.08
71.2%
Scoring rate
74.6%
62.1%
BTTS rate
62.7%
1.76
Goals for per game
0.97
72.4%
Scoring rate
71.0%
65.5%
BTTS rate
64.5%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
59
1.48
Goals Mean
1.08
1.54
Goals Std
0.85
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
37.9%
Scored 2+ rate
27.1%
19.7%
Scored 3+ rate
6.8%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.39
Goals against per game
1.51
84.8%
Conceding rate
81.4%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.77
82.8%
Conceding rate
87.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
59
1.39
Conceded Mean
1.51
0.98
Conceded Std
1.16
39.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.1%
10.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.9%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.6%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.9%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.6%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
12.9%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
59
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.40
0.43
Stability score
2.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
59
20
Lead Matches
13
55.0%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.69
19
Trailing Matches
18
31.6%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.77
Rest days
74.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.94
19
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.09
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
9
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.82
Portability PPG Range
1.36
57.89
Portability Score
46.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO56.33
PPG0.16
GF0.40
GA-0.11
PPG-1.00
PPG0.47
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate3.4%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.40
Goals Std0.69
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate10.8%
Scored 3+ rate12.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std-0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.39
History Matches7
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.30
Stability score-1.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.26
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate1.2%
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate20.5%
Trailing Win Rate5.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.54
Portability Score11.78
Rest days3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.34
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Current Team ELO56.33
Current Opponent ELO-56.33
Current ELO Difference112.7
Expected score0.16
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atalanta II

L
Spezia2–1Atalanta II1 Nov · away
Pick: Spezia 47% · hit
W
Atalanta II2–1Vis Pesaro28 Oct · home
Pick: Atalanta II 40% · hit
L
Atalanta II1–2Campobasso FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Atalanta II 39% · missed
W
Gubbio0–2Atalanta II18 Oct · away
Pick: Atalanta II 40% · hit
L
Latina2–0Atalanta II14 Oct · away
Pick: Latina 43% · hit

Reggiana

W
Reggiana2–0Sambenedettese30 Oct · home
Pick: Reggiana 38% · hit
L
Grosseto2–0Reggiana25 Oct · away
Pick: Grosseto 49% · hit
W
Reggiana2–0Torres17 Oct · home
Pick: Reggiana 47% · hit
L
Reggiana0–1Spezia4 Oct · home
Pick: Reggiana 37% · missed
W
Gubbio1–2Reggiana30 Aug · away
Pick: Gubbio 35% · missed

About this match

Atalanta II and Reggiana meet in Serie C - Girone B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Comunale. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Atalanta II win 42.6%, draw 25.5%, Reggiana win 31.9%. The pick is Atalanta II win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.2%. Both teams to score: 54.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.