ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone B Italy Girone B - 13 2026

Forli vs Gubbio

Forli Home · Elo 1,501
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gubbio Away · Elo 1,516
Stadio Tullo Morgagni, Forli Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Forli win
Forli winPick
57.3%
Draw
22.8%
Gubbio win
19.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.4%
No50.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.2%
Under 2.552.8%

How much we know

Forli history59 matches
Gubbio history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Forli are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,501 against 1,516. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Forli score far more

    1.39 goals a game over 59 matches for Forli, against 0.84 over 58 for Gubbio.

  • Gubbio concede fewer

    Forli concede 1.25 a game, Gubbio 1.02.

  • Forli games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Forli matches, against 26% for Gubbio. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Forli
Gubbio
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1501.4
ELO
1516.4
59
ELO · Matches
58
1501.4
Current Team ELO
1516.4
1516.4
Current Opponent ELO
1501.4
-15.03
Current ELO Difference
15.03
0.48
Expected score
0.52
59
History Matches
58
0.00
Residual Mean
0.01
49.67
Overperformance
50.39
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.10
0.90
Goals for per game
0.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.75
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
58
1.49
PPG
1.31
42.4%
Win rate
32.8%
22.0%
Draw rate
32.8%
35.6%
Loss rate
34.5%
72.9%
Over 1.5 rate
58.6%
49.2%
Over 2.5 rate
25.9%
30.5%
Over 3.5 rate
8.6%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
32
1.68
PPG
1.13
46.4%
Win rate
28.1%
28.6%
Draw rate
28.1%
25.0%
Loss rate
43.8%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
53.1%
35.7%
Over 2.5 rate
28.1%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
6.3%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
28
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
0.84
76.3%
Scoring rate
60.3%
50.8%
BTTS rate
34.5%
1.39
Goals for per game
0.72
78.6%
Scoring rate
56.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
31.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
59
History Matches
58
1.39
Goals Mean
0.84
1.10
Goals Std
0.85
76.3%
Scored 1+ rate
60.3%
40.7%
Scored 2+ rate
19.0%
18.6%
Scored 3+ rate
5.2%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
0.72
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.02
69.5%
Conceding rate
62.1%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.06
64.3%
Conceding rate
65.6%
2.00
Goals against per game
3.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
59
History Matches
58
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.02
1.10
Conceded Std
1.01
39.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.6%
13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.1%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
39.7%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
23.7%
Failed-to-score rate
39.7%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
34.4%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
37.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
58
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.38
3.08
Stability score
0.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
58
17
Lead Matches
14
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.74
14
Trailing Matches
17
14.3%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.90
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.55
23
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.00
8
Competition Season Count
8
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.84
Portability PPG Std
0.01
1.69
Portability PPG Range
0.02
37.20
Portability Score
97.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-15.03
PPG0.18
GF0.55
GA0.24
PPG1.00
PPG0.55
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate1.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.55
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate15.9%
Scored 2+ rate21.7%
Scored 3+ rate13.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.07
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate11.4%
Conceded 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score3.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate18.1%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.83
Portability PPG Range1.67
Portability Score-60.72
Rest days-1.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO-15.03
Current Opponent ELO15.03
Current ELO Difference-30.06
Expected score-0.04
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Forli

L
Campobasso FC2–0Forli1 Nov · away
Pick: Campobasso FC 51% · hit
D
Forli0–0Pianese25 Oct · home
Pick: Forli 54% · missed
L
Guidonia Montecelio 19373–2Forli17 Oct · away
Pick: Guidonia Montecelio 1937 49% · hit
L
Ravenna2–1Forli1 Sep · away
Pick: Ravenna 59% · hit
W
Forli6–3Pescara29 Aug · home
Pick: Forli 38% · hit

Gubbio

D
Gubbio0–0Vis Pesaro1 Nov · home
Pick: Vis Pesaro 38% · missed
L
Pineto1–0Gubbio23 Oct · away
Pick: Pineto 53% · hit
L
Gubbio0–2Atalanta II18 Oct · home
Pick: Atalanta II 40% · hit
L
Gubbio1–2Reggiana30 Aug · home
Pick: Gubbio 35% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Forli and Gubbio meet in Serie C - Girone B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Tullo Morgagni, Forli. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Forli win 57.3%, draw 22.8%, Gubbio win 19.9%. The pick is Forli win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.2%. Both teams to score: 49.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.