ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone B Italy Girone B - 13 2026

Vado vs Ravenna

Vado Home · Elo 1,631
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ravenna Away · Elo 1,595
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vado win
Vado winPick
46.2%
Draw
25.9%
Ravenna win
27.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.7%
No53.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.7%
Under 2.550.3%

How much we know

Vado history58 matches
Ravenna history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Vado are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vado are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,631 against 1,595. On rating alone Vado would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Vado score more

    1.84 goals a game over 58 matches for Vado, against 1.59 over 66 for Ravenna.

  • Defences are close

    Vado concede 0.88 a game, Ravenna 0.95.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Vado matches, against 45% for Ravenna. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vado
Ravenna
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1631.4
ELO
1595.1
58
ELO · Matches
66
1631.4
Current Team ELO
1595.1
1595.1
Current Opponent ELO
1631.4
36.29
Current ELO Difference
-36.29
0.55
Expected score
0.45
58
History Matches
66
0.11
Residual Mean
0.07
58.25
Overperformance
55.68
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.50
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.85
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
66
1.97
PPG
1.92
58.6%
Win rate
56.1%
20.7%
Draw rate
24.2%
20.7%
Loss rate
19.7%
72.4%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
46.6%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
27.6%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
31
2.31
PPG
1.39
72.4%
Win rate
35.5%
13.8%
Draw rate
32.3%
13.8%
Loss rate
32.3%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
51.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.2%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.6%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.23
29
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.84
Goals for per game
1.59
77.6%
Scoring rate
83.3%
39.7%
BTTS rate
47.0%
2.17
Goals for per game
1.35
86.2%
Scoring rate
80.6%
41.4%
BTTS rate
61.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
66
1.84
Goals Mean
1.59
1.66
Goals Std
1.17
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
45.5%
29.3%
Scored 3+ rate
22.7%
2.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.88
Goals against per game
0.95
56.9%
Conceding rate
57.6%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.32
51.7%
Conceding rate
77.4%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
66
0.88
Conceded Mean
0.95
1.08
Conceded Std
1.02
19.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.3%
6.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.5%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.4%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.4%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
48.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
42.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
66
0.88
Result entropy
0.90
2.19
Goal Difference Std
1.48
12.16
Stability score
10.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
66
22
Lead Matches
25
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.88
11
Trailing Matches
12
27.3%
Non-loss rate
75.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
74.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
41
2.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
16
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
9
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.68
0.87
Portability PPG Range
2.00
56.98
Portability Score
42.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO36.29
PPG0.04
GF0.25
GA-0.08
PPG2.00
PPG0.92
PPG1.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate5.7%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate25.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-8
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.49
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate4.5%
Scored 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.82
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate2.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.37
History Matches-8
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.71
Stability score2.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.41
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate16.0%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.48
Trailing Win Rate-0.24
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.30
Portability PPG Range-1.13
Portability Score14.61
Rest days3.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.10
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO36.29
Current Opponent ELO-36.29
Current ELO Difference72.58
Expected score0.10
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vado

D
Vado2–2Grosseto31 Oct · home
Pick: Vado 51% · missed
W
Ostia Mare1–2Vado23 Oct · away
Pick: Vado 44% · hit
D
Vado2–2Sambenedettese17 Oct · home
Pick: Vado 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ravenna

W
Ravenna2–1Pineto1 Nov · home
Pick: Ravenna 57% · hit
W
Vis Pesaro0–4Ravenna24 Oct · away
Pick: Ravenna 47% · hit
L
Ravenna0–1Spezia18 Oct · home
Pick: Ravenna 57% · missed
L
Pianese2–1Ravenna4 Oct · away
Pick: Ravenna 43% · missed
W
Ravenna2–1Forli1 Sep · home
Pick: Ravenna 59% · hit

About this match

Vado and Ravenna meet in Serie C - Girone B on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Vado win 46.2%, draw 25.9%, Ravenna win 27.9%. The pick is Vado win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.7%. Both teams to score: 46.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.