ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Spain Group 4 - 10 2026

Atlético Central vs Antoniano

Atlético Central Home · Elo 1,569
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Antoniano Away · Elo 1,517
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atlético Central win
Atlético Central winPick
52.3%
Draw
28.8%
Antoniano win
18.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.0%
No53.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.1%
Under 2.558.9%

How much we know

Atlético Central history62 matches
Antoniano history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Atlético Central are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atlético Central are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,569 against 1,517. On rating alone Atlético Central would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.21 goals a game over 62 matches for Atlético Central, against 1.15 over 54 for Antoniano.

  • Atlético Central concede fewer

    Atlético Central concede 0.79 a game, Antoniano 1.09.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    37% of Atlético Central matches, against 39% for Antoniano. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atlético Central
Antoniano
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1568.5
ELO
1517.3
62
ELO · Matches
54
1568.5
Current Team ELO
1517.3
1517.3
Current Opponent ELO
1568.5
51.24
Current ELO Difference
-51.24
0.57
Expected score
0.43
62
History Matches
54
0.05
Residual Mean
0.02
54.05
Overperformance
51.13
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
54
1.68
PPG
1.48
46.8%
Win rate
40.7%
27.4%
Draw rate
25.9%
25.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
58.1%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
37.1%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
12.9%
Over 3.5 rate
20.4%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
27
2.03
PPG
0.93
61.3%
Win rate
22.2%
19.4%
Draw rate
25.9%
19.4%
Loss rate
51.9%
67.7%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
41.9%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
19.4%
Over 3.5 rate
14.8%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
31
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.21
Goals for per game
1.15
72.6%
Scoring rate
64.8%
38.7%
BTTS rate
44.4%
1.58
Goals for per game
0.81
83.9%
Scoring rate
48.1%
35.5%
BTTS rate
40.7%
62
History Matches
54
1.21
Goals Mean
1.15
1.02
Goals Std
1.06
72.6%
Scored 1+ rate
64.8%
37.1%
Scored 2+ rate
37.0%
8.1%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
0.81
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.79
Goals against per game
1.09
51.6%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.74
Goals against per game
1.33
41.9%
Conceding rate
85.2%
62
History Matches
54
0.79
Conceded Mean
1.09
0.99
Conceded Std
0.99
19.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
4.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.4%
0.74
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
48.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
27.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.2%
58.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
51.9%
48.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
27.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.2%
58.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
51.9%
48.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
54
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.41
Goal Difference Std
1.41
3.54
Stability score
1.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
54
21
Lead Matches
17
90.5%
Lead Win Rate
70.6%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.75
10
Trailing Matches
12
30.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
140.9
Rest days
189.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.64
21
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.35
0.65
Portability PPG Range
0.71
64.59
Portability Score
58.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO51.24
PPG0.20
GF0.06
GA-0.30
PPG1.11
PPG1.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate15.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate43.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate7.8%
Scored 2+ rate0.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.01
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate15.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.20
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score2.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.02
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate19.9%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate5.0%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.06
Portability Score5.97
Rest days-48.33
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.16
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO51.24
Current Opponent ELO-51.24
Current ELO Difference102.5
Expected score0.15
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atlético Central

W
Las Palmas II0–1Atlético Central1 Nov · away
Pick: Atlético Central 39% · hit
W
Atlético Central1–0Tamaraceite25 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Central 46% · hit
L
Don Benito4–2Atlético Central18 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Central 35% · missed
L
Atlético Central0–1Linares Deportivo4 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Central 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Antoniano

W
Antoniano4–1Estepona1 Nov · home
Pick: Antoniano 37% · hit
L
Recreativo Huelva5–0Antoniano24 Oct · away
Pick: Recreativo Huelva 53% · hit
D
Antoniano3–3Sevilla Atletico18 Oct · home
Pick: Antoniano 42% · missed
L
Tamaraceite1–0Antoniano4 Oct · away
Pick: Tamaraceite 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Atlético Central and Antoniano meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Atlético Central win 52.3%, draw 28.8%, Antoniano win 18.9%. The pick is Atlético Central win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.1%. Both teams to score: 47.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.