ScoreProb
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Spain Group 4 - 10 2026

Sanluqueño vs Xerez

Sanluqueño Home · Elo 1,410
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Xerez Away · Elo 1,561
Estadio El Palmar Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Xerez win
Sanluqueño win
33.0%
Draw
33.3%
Xerez winPick
33.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.1%
No57.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.539.1%
Under 2.560.9%

How much we know

Sanluqueño history57 matches
Xerez history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (33.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Xerez are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Xerez are rated 152 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,561 against 1,410. On rating alone Xerez would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Xerez score more

    0.82 goals a game over 57 matches for Sanluqueño, against 0.94 over 53 for Xerez.

  • Xerez concede fewer

    Sanluqueño concede 1.33 a game, Xerez 0.77.

  • Sanluqueño games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Sanluqueño matches, against 23% for Xerez. The model puts this match at 39% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sanluqueño
Xerez
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1409.6
ELO
1561.3
57
ELO · Matches
53
1409.6
Current Team ELO
1561.3
1561.3
Current Opponent ELO
1409.6
-151.7
Current ELO Difference
151.7
0.29
Expected score
0.71
57
History Matches
53
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.05
44.57
Overperformance
53.82
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.40
0.20
Goals for per game
0.40
1.40
Goals against per game
0.20
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.40
0.20
Goals for per game
0.50
1.20
Goals against per game
0.50
0.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.67
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
53
0.98
PPG
1.53
22.8%
Win rate
41.5%
29.8%
Draw rate
28.3%
47.4%
Loss rate
30.2%
59.6%
Over 1.5 rate
49.1%
35.1%
Over 2.5 rate
22.6%
22.8%
Over 3.5 rate
9.4%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
28
1.17
PPG
1.18
26.7%
Win rate
28.6%
36.7%
Draw rate
32.1%
36.7%
Loss rate
39.3%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
36.7%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
10.7%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.14
30
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.82
Goals for per game
0.94
52.6%
Scoring rate
64.2%
38.6%
BTTS rate
34.0%
0.93
Goals for per game
0.86
63.3%
Scoring rate
53.6%
46.7%
BTTS rate
39.3%
57
History Matches
53
0.82
Goals Mean
0.94
0.99
Goals Std
0.86
52.6%
Scored 1+ rate
64.2%
19.3%
Scored 2+ rate
26.4%
8.8%
Scored 3+ rate
3.8%
0.93
Venue Goals Mean
0.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.33
Goals against per game
0.77
68.4%
Conceding rate
56.6%
1.27
Goals against per game
0.96
66.7%
Conceding rate
67.9%
57
History Matches
53
1.33
Conceded Mean
0.77
1.22
Conceded Std
0.79
40.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.9%
17.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
1.9%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
47.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
46.4%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
47.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
46.4%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
53
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.09
4.25
Stability score
1.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
53
12
Lead Matches
20
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.87
19
Trailing Matches
16
15.8%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
168.8
Rest days
85.73
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
32
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.55
24
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.23
0.42
Portability PPG Range
0.47
70.45
Portability Score
68.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-151.7
PPG-0.55
GF-0.12
GA0.56
PPG-0.01
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate11.5%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate1.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.27
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.56
Conceded Std0.43
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate21.5%
Conceded 3+ rate15.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.58
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.37
Stability score2.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.29
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate3.3%
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.05
Portability Score2.36
Rest days83.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.65
Current Team ELO-151.7
Current Opponent ELO151.7
Current ELO Difference-303.4
Expected score-0.41
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-9.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sanluqueño

L
Ciudad de Lucena2–1Sanluqueño1 Nov · away
Pick: Ciudad de Lucena 46% · hit
W
Sanluqueño4–1Las Palmas II25 Oct · home
Pick: Sanluqueño 42% · hit
L
Badajoz1–0Sanluqueño18 Oct · away
Pick: Badajoz 60% · hit
D
Sanluqueño2–2Mijas Las Lagunas4 Oct · home
Pick: Sanluqueño 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Xerez

W
Tamaraceite1–3Xerez1 Nov · away
Pick: Tamaraceite 39% · missed
W
Xerez1–0Marbella25 Oct · home
Pick: Xerez 51% · hit
L
Xerez0–1Ciudad de Lucena18 Oct · home
Pick: Xerez 37% · missed
W
Xerez2–1Tenerife II4 Oct · home
Pick: Xerez 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sanluqueño and Xerez meet in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio El Palmar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sanluqueño win 33.0%, draw 33.3%, Xerez win 33.7%. The pick is Xerez win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.1%. Both teams to score: 42.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.