ScoreProb
La Liga Spain Round 12 2026

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona

Atletico Madrid Home · Elo 1,632
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Barcelona Away · Elo 1,771
Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Barcelona win
Atletico Madrid win
17.9%
Draw
20.5%
Barcelona winPick
61.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.5%
No42.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.7%
Under 2.534.3%

How much we know

Atletico Madrid history95 matches
Barcelona history97 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.5%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Barcelona are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Barcelona are rated 139 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,771 against 1,632. On rating alone Barcelona would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Barcelona score more

    1.88 goals a game over 95 matches for Atletico Madrid, against 2.70 over 97 for Barcelona.

  • Barcelona concede fewer

    Atletico Madrid concede 1.26 a game, Barcelona 1.11.

  • Barcelona games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Atletico Madrid matches, against 74% for Barcelona. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atletico Madrid
Barcelona
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1632.2
ELO
1771.0
95
ELO · Matches
97
1632.2
Current Team ELO
1771.0
1771.0
Current Opponent ELO
1632.2
-138.8
Current ELO Difference
138.8
0.31
Expected score
0.69
95
History Matches
97
0.06
Residual Mean
0.14
55.26
Overperformance
61.36
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
1.60
Goals for per game
2.60
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.90
1.60
Goals for per game
2.30
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.79
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.07
Overall performance9 signals
90
95
Matches
97
1.75
PPG
2.39
52.6%
Win rate
76.3%
16.8%
Draw rate
10.3%
30.5%
Loss rate
13.4%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.6%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
74.2%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
50.5%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
45
Matches
48
2.24
PPG
2.17
71.1%
Win rate
68.8%
11.1%
Draw rate
10.4%
17.8%
Loss rate
20.8%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
62.2%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
42.2%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
45
History Matches
48
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.88
Goals for per game
2.70
85.3%
Scoring rate
94.8%
55.8%
BTTS rate
57.7%
2.31
Goals for per game
2.33
93.3%
Scoring rate
91.7%
55.6%
BTTS rate
58.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
5.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
95
History Matches
97
1.88
Goals Mean
2.70
1.40
Goals Std
1.61
85.3%
Scored 1+ rate
94.8%
51.6%
Scored 2+ rate
74.2%
30.5%
Scored 3+ rate
50.5%
2.31
Venue Goals Mean
2.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.26
Goals against per game
1.11
68.4%
Conceding rate
62.9%
0.98
Goals against per game
1.27
62.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
95
History Matches
97
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.18
Conceded Std
1.12
36.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.9%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.4%
0.98
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
5.2%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
5.2%
37.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
95
History Matches
97
0.91
Result entropy
0.65
1.92
Goal Difference Std
1.96
8.97
Stability score
35.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
95
Eligible Matches
97
37
Lead Matches
48
75.7%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.94
18
Trailing Matches
17
22.2%
Non-loss rate
47.1%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
35.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
95
Halftime Coverage Matches
97
0.95
First Half Goals For Mean
1.25
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.45
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.21
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
18
Short Rest History Matches
19
1.39
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.95
61
Normal Rest History Matches
58
1.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.40
15
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.79
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
1
2.00
PPG
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
100.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
2
Current Competition Matches
1
2.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
5.00
11
Competition Season Count
10
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.83
Portability PPG Range
1.29
64.53
Portability Score
55.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
95
Clean History Matches
97
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-138.8
PPG-0.64
GF-0.82
GA0.15
PPG-1.00
PPG0.08
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate9.6%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.82
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.23
Scored 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Goals Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.77
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate5.9%
Conceded 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.56
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.26
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score-26.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.12
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.30
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.45
Portability Score9.22
Rest days0.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.39
Current Team ELO-138.8
Current Opponent ELO138.8
Current ELO Difference-277.5
Expected score-0.38
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-6.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atletico Madrid

L
Atletico Madrid0–2Bayern München3 Nov · home
Pick: Bayern München 41% · hit
W
Levante0–2Atletico Madrid31 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Madrid 58% · hit
W
Atletico Madrid1–0Deportivo La Coruna24 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Madrid 57% · hit
D
VfB Stuttgart1–1Atletico Madrid20 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Madrid 41% · missed
W
Espanyol0–1Atletico Madrid17 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Madrid 43% · hit

Barcelona

W
Barcelona3–0Aston Villa3 Nov · home
Pick: Barcelona 42% · hit
W
Barcelona6–1Alaves31 Oct · home
Pick: Barcelona 62% · hit
L
Barcelona1–2Real Madrid25 Oct · home
Pick: Barcelona 48% · missed
L
Paris Saint Germain4–2Barcelona20 Oct · away
Pick: Paris Saint Germain 37% · hit
W
Real Betis2–5Barcelona17 Oct · away
Pick: Barcelona 63% · hit

About this match

Atletico Madrid and Barcelona meet in La Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Atletico Madrid win 17.9%, draw 20.5%, Barcelona win 61.5%. The pick is Barcelona win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.7%. Both teams to score: 57.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.