ScoreProb
La Liga Spain Round 12 2026

Villarreal vs Getafe

Villarreal Home · Elo 1,612
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Getafe Away · Elo 1,529
Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Villarreal win
Villarreal winPick
60.4%
Draw
20.3%
Getafe win
19.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.6%
No46.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%

How much we know

Villarreal history79 matches
Getafe history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Villarreal are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Villarreal are rated 83 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,612 against 1,529. On rating alone Villarreal would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Villarreal score far more

    1.72 goals a game over 79 matches for Villarreal, against 1.03 over 72 for Getafe.

  • Getafe concede fewer

    Villarreal concede 1.35 a game, Getafe 1.15.

  • Villarreal games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Villarreal matches, against 40% for Getafe. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Villarreal
Getafe
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1612.3
ELO
1529.0
79
ELO · Matches
72
1612.3
Current Team ELO
1529.0
1529.0
Current Opponent ELO
1612.3
83.31
Current ELO Difference
-83.31
0.62
Expected score
0.38
79
History Matches
72
0.06
Residual Mean
0.01
54.61
Overperformance
50.72
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
0.70
1.70
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
79
Matches
72
1.65
PPG
1.26
48.1%
Win rate
36.1%
20.3%
Draw rate
18.1%
31.6%
Loss rate
45.8%
83.5%
Over 1.5 rate
61.1%
60.8%
Over 2.5 rate
40.3%
38.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
41
2.00
PPG
1.27
61.8%
Win rate
36.6%
14.7%
Draw rate
17.1%
23.5%
Loss rate
46.3%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
63.4%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.8%
44.1%
Over 3.5 rate
17.1%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.55
34
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.72
Goals for per game
1.03
77.2%
Scoring rate
58.3%
59.5%
BTTS rate
36.1%
2.21
Goals for per game
1.15
85.3%
Scoring rate
56.1%
61.8%
BTTS rate
34.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
79
History Matches
72
1.72
Goals Mean
1.03
1.43
Goals Std
1.50
77.2%
Scored 1+ rate
58.3%
53.2%
Scored 2+ rate
26.4%
22.8%
Scored 3+ rate
5.6%
2.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.35
Goals against per game
1.15
79.7%
Conceding rate
69.4%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.29
73.5%
Conceding rate
70.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
79
History Matches
72
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.15
0.98
Conceded Std
1.11
41.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.8%
11.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
22.8%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
43.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
22.8%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
14.7%
Failed-to-score rate
43.9%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
79
History Matches
72
0.95
Result entropy
0.94
1.90
Goal Difference Std
2.09
5.38
Stability score
5.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
79
Eligible Matches
72
29
Lead Matches
13
86.2%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.92
22
Trailing Matches
24
22.7%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
79
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.10
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.17
44
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
26
Long Rest History Matches
31
1.46
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
8
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.74
Portability PPG Std
0.23
2.13
Portability PPG Range
0.59
40.43
Portability Score
68.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
79
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO83.31
PPG0.38
GF0.69
GA0.20
PPG-0.50
PPG0.73
PPG0.80
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.69
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate18.9%
Scored 2+ rate26.8%
Scored 3+ rate17.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.76
History Matches7
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches7
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score-0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.37
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate0.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.51
Portability PPG Range1.53
Portability Score-28.30
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.08
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO83.31
Current Opponent ELO-83.31
Current ELO Difference166.6
Expected score0.24
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Villarreal

L
Villarreal0–6Paris Saint Germain3 Nov · home
Pick: Paris Saint Germain 42% · hit
L
Villarreal0–1Espanyol30 Oct · home
Pick: Villarreal 49% · missed
W
Manacor0–5Villarreal27 Oct · away
Pick: Villarreal 53% · hit
W
Valencia1–2Villarreal24 Oct · away
Pick: Villarreal 46% · hit
L
Liverpool4–3Villarreal20 Oct · away
Pick: Liverpool 54% · hit

Getafe

W
Getafe3–1Sevilla1 Nov · home
Pick: Sevilla 44% · missed
W
Lebrijana2–3Getafe29 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
L
Athletic Club4–0Getafe25 Oct · away
Pick: Athletic Club 48% · hit
L
Getafe2–5FC Lugano22 Oct · home
Pick: FC Lugano 47% · hit
D
Getafe1–1Rayo Vallecano19 Oct · home
Pick: Rayo Vallecano 37% · missed

About this match

Villarreal and Getafe meet in La Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. The match is played at Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Villarreal win 60.4%, draw 20.3%, Getafe win 19.3%. The pick is Villarreal win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.6%. Both teams to score: 53.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.