ScoreProb
1 Lyga Lithuania Round 30 2026

Atmosfera vs Ekranas

Atmosfera Home · Elo 1,500
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ekranas Away · Elo 1,369
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atmosfera win
Atmosfera winPick
67.4%
Draw
17.3%
Ekranas win
15.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.9%
No43.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.4%
Under 2.533.6%

How much we know

Atmosfera history54 matches
Ekranas history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Atmosfera are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atmosfera are rated 132 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,500 against 1,369. On rating alone Atmosfera would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Atmosfera score more

    1.70 goals a game over 54 matches for Atmosfera, against 1.41 over 54 for Ekranas.

  • Atmosfera concede fewer

    Atmosfera concede 1.20 a game, Ekranas 2.13.

  • Ekranas games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of Atmosfera matches, against 69% for Ekranas. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atmosfera
Ekranas
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.5
ELO
1368.6
54
ELO · Matches
54
1500.5
Current Team ELO
1368.6
1368.6
Current Opponent ELO
1500.5
131.8
Current ELO Difference
-131.8
0.68
Expected score
0.32
54
History Matches
54
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.12
50.48
Overperformance
41.04
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.40
1.20
Goals for per game
0.90
1.20
Goals against per game
2.50
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
54
1.48
PPG
0.80
42.6%
Win rate
24.1%
20.4%
Draw rate
7.4%
37.0%
Loss rate
68.5%
79.6%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
68.5%
31.5%
Over 3.5 rate
42.6%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
28
1.28
PPG
0.89
34.5%
Win rate
28.6%
24.1%
Draw rate
3.6%
41.4%
Loss rate
67.9%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
55.2%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.95
29
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.70
Goals for per game
1.41
74.1%
Scoring rate
66.7%
51.9%
BTTS rate
55.6%
1.66
Goals for per game
1.71
75.9%
Scoring rate
64.3%
62.1%
BTTS rate
53.6%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
60.0%
BTTS rate
61.9%
54
History Matches
54
1.70
Goals Mean
1.41
1.70
Goals Std
2.55
74.1%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
42.6%
Scored 2+ rate
24.1%
24.1%
Scored 3+ rate
14.8%
1.66
Venue Goals Mean
1.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
2.13
75.9%
Conceding rate
87.0%
1.45
Goals against per game
2.07
86.2%
Conceding rate
89.3%
1.25
Goals against per game
2.14
85.0%
Conceding rate
90.5%
54
History Matches
54
1.20
Conceded Mean
2.13
1.01
Conceded Std
1.52
29.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
63.0%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
1.45
Venue Conceded Mean
2.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.7%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
15.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
10.7%
24.1%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
54
0.96
Result entropy
0.72
2.26
Goal Difference Std
3.29
3.92
Stability score
27.67
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
54
20
Lead Matches
11
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.79
14
Trailing Matches
23
21.4%
Non-loss rate
4.3%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.26
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
77.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.04
23
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.74
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
21
1.30
PPG
0.52
35.0%
Win rate
14.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
9.5%
40.0%
Loss rate
76.2%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
76.2%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
20
Current Competition Matches
21
1.30
Current Competition PPG
0.52
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.14
4
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.24
0.30
Portability PPG Range
0.48
76.92
Portability Score
67.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO131.8
PPG0.69
GF0.30
GA-0.93
PPG0.78
PPG0.38
PPG0.20
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std-0.85
Scored 1+ rate7.4%
Scored 2+ rate18.5%
Scored 3+ rate9.3%
Venue Goals Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.47
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.93
Conceded Std-0.51
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.33
Conceded 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.46
History Matches0
Result entropy0.24
Goal Difference Std-1.03
Stability score-23.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate12.3%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate17.1%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.56
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.78
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.39
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.18
Portability Score9.18
Rest days-0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match1.07
Current Team ELO131.8
Current Opponent ELO-131.8
Current ELO Difference263.6
Expected score0.36
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance9.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atmosfera

L
Minija3–1Atmosfera31 Oct · away
Pick: Minija 67% · hit
W
Atmosfera3–0Jonava24 Oct · home
Pick: Atmosfera 48% · hit
L
Neptūną Klaipėda3–1Atmosfera29 Aug · away
Pick: Neptūną Klaipėda 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ekranas

L
Ekranas1–2Tauras30 Oct · home
Pick: Tauras 73% · hit
W
Neptūną Klaipėda0–2Ekranas24 Oct · away
Pick: Neptūną Klaipėda 74% · missed
L
Ekranas1–3Dainava16 Oct · home
Pick: Dainava 69% · hit
L
Ekranas0–5Be1 NFA29 Aug · home
Pick: Be1 NFA 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Atmosfera and Ekranas meet in 1 Lyga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Atmosfera win 67.4%, draw 17.3%, Ekranas win 15.2%. The pick is Atmosfera win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.4%. Both teams to score: 56.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.