ScoreProb
1 Lyga Lithuania Round 30 2026

Babrungas vs FA Šiauliai II

Babrungas Home · Elo 1,643
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FA Šiauliai II Away · Elo 1,400
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Babrungas win
Babrungas winPick
82.3%
Draw
10.7%
FA Šiauliai II win
7.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.3%
No51.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.1%
Under 2.529.9%

How much we know

Babrungas history55 matches
FA Šiauliai II history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (82.3%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Babrungas are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Babrungas are rated 242 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,643 against 1,400. On rating alone Babrungas would be expected to take 80% of the points on offer.

  • Babrungas score far more

    2.02 goals a game over 55 matches for Babrungas, against 1.26 over 53 for FA Šiauliai II.

  • Babrungas concede fewer

    Babrungas concede 0.95 a game, FA Šiauliai II 2.23.

  • FA Šiauliai II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Babrungas matches, against 70% for FA Šiauliai II. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Babrungas
FA Šiauliai II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1642.8
ELO
1400.5
55
ELO · Matches
53
1642.8
Current Team ELO
1400.5
1400.5
Current Opponent ELO
1642.8
242.3
Current ELO Difference
-242.3
0.80
Expected score
0.20
55
History Matches
53
0.13
Residual Mean
-0.09
59.22
Overperformance
43.31
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
0.70
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.30
Goals against per game
2.10
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.40
0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.73
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
53
2.11
PPG
0.83
63.6%
Win rate
22.6%
20.0%
Draw rate
15.1%
16.4%
Loss rate
62.3%
74.5%
Over 1.5 rate
84.9%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
69.8%
30.9%
Over 3.5 rate
54.7%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
27
2.22
PPG
0.89
70.4%
Win rate
25.9%
11.1%
Draw rate
11.1%
18.5%
Loss rate
63.0%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
92.6%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
74.1%
40.7%
Over 3.5 rate
59.3%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.46
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.02
Goals for per game
1.26
92.7%
Scoring rate
71.7%
50.9%
BTTS rate
56.6%
2.19
Goals for per game
1.37
96.3%
Scoring rate
77.8%
55.6%
BTTS rate
63.0%
1.76
Goals for per game
0.90
95.2%
Scoring rate
71.4%
28.6%
BTTS rate
57.1%
55
History Matches
53
2.02
Goals Mean
1.26
1.46
Goals Std
1.26
92.7%
Scored 1+ rate
71.7%
52.7%
Scored 2+ rate
30.2%
30.9%
Scored 3+ rate
11.3%
2.19
Venue Goals Mean
1.37
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.95
Goals against per game
2.23
52.7%
Conceding rate
81.1%
1.07
Goals against per game
2.52
55.6%
Conceding rate
85.2%
0.33
Goals against per game
2.14
28.6%
Conceding rate
81.0%
55
History Matches
53
0.95
Conceded Mean
2.23
1.29
Conceded Std
1.62
21.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
62.3%
9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
41.5%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
2.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
47.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
7.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
3.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
71.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
4.8%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
47.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
7.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
44.4%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
3.7%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
47.3%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
53
0.82
Result entropy
0.83
1.89
Goal Difference Std
2.35
17.56
Stability score
16.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
53
28
Lead Matches
12
82.1%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.72
10
Trailing Matches
23
40.0%
Non-loss rate
4.3%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.85
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
1.16
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.19
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.88
Rest days
77.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
27
2.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.56
21
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.90
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
21
2.48
PPG
0.67
76.2%
Win rate
14.3%
19.0%
Draw rate
23.8%
4.8%
Loss rate
61.9%
61.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
38.1%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
47.6%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
21
Current Competition Matches
21
2.48
Current Competition PPG
0.67
1.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.24
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.58
Portability PPG Range
0.27
67.70
Portability Score
78.69
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO242.3
PPG1.28
GF0.75
GA-1.28
PPG1.81
PPG1.33
PPG0.60
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate28.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate29.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.75
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate21.0%
Scored 2+ rate22.5%
Scored 3+ rate19.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.81
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.62
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-1.28
Conceded Std-0.34
Clean-sheet rate28.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.40
Conceded 3+ rate-0.32
Venue Conceded Mean-1.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.94
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.46
Stability score1.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.43
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches16
Lead Win Rate15.5%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate35.7%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.66
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.81
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.67
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.31
Portability Score-10.99
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.52
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.82
Current Team ELO242.3
Current Opponent ELO-242.3
Current ELO Difference484.7
Expected score0.60
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.22
Overperformance15.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Babrungas

D
Be1 NFA1–1Babrungas30 Oct · away
Pick: Babrungas 48% · missed
W
Babrungas4–0Hegelmann II25 Oct · home
Pick: Babrungas 82% · hit
W
Minija2–3Babrungas17 Oct · away
Pick: Minija 44% · missed
W
Garliava0–1Babrungas29 Aug · away
Pick: Babrungas 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FA Šiauliai II

L
FA Šiauliai II0–4Dainava1 Nov · home
Pick: Dainava 63% · hit
L
Transinvest 23–2FA Šiauliai II26 Oct · away
Pick: Transinvest 2 46% · hit
L
FA Šiauliai II2–3Garliava17 Oct · home
Pick: Garliava 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Babrungas and FA Šiauliai II meet in 1 Lyga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Babrungas win 82.3%, draw 10.7%, FA Šiauliai II win 7.0%. The pick is Babrungas win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.1%. Both teams to score: 48.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.