ScoreProb
1 Lyga Lithuania Round 30 2026

Minija vs Garliava

Minija Home · Elo 1,603
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Garliava Away · Elo 1,457
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Minija win
Minija winPick
73.6%
Draw
16.2%
Garliava win
10.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.6%
No52.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.3%
Under 2.540.7%

How much we know

Minija history57 matches
Garliava history24 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (73.6%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Minija are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Minija are rated 146 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,603 against 1,457. On rating alone Minija would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Minija score more

    1.61 goals a game over 57 matches for Minija, against 1.17 over 24 for Garliava.

  • Defences are close

    Minija concede 1.12 a game, Garliava 1.13.

  • Minija games more often go over 2.5 goals

    58% of Minija matches, against 46% for Garliava. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Minija
Garliava
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1602.9
ELO
1457.1
57
ELO · Matches
24
1602.9
Current Team ELO
1457.1
1457.1
Current Opponent ELO
1602.9
145.9
Current ELO Difference
-145.9
0.70
Expected score
0.30
57
History Matches
24
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.09
56.32
Overperformance
45.04
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.36
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.00
2.80
Goals for per game
0.20
0.40
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
0.40
2.10
Goals for per game
0.60
0.30
Goals against per game
1.30
80.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
1.58
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
24
1.75
PPG
1.17
54.4%
Win rate
33.3%
12.3%
Draw rate
16.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
71.9%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
57.9%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
12
1.63
PPG
0.83
51.9%
Win rate
25.0%
7.4%
Draw rate
8.3%
40.7%
Loss rate
66.7%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
8.3%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
27
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.61
Goals for per game
1.17
70.2%
Scoring rate
62.5%
40.4%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.00
70.4%
Scoring rate
58.3%
44.4%
BTTS rate
41.7%
2.65
Goals for per game
1.15
85.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
57
History Matches
24
1.61
Goals Mean
1.17
1.53
Goals Std
1.14
70.2%
Scored 1+ rate
62.5%
45.6%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
28.1%
Scored 3+ rate
20.8%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.12
Goals against per game
1.13
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.37
Goals against per game
1.33
74.1%
Conceding rate
83.3%
0.55
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
57
History Matches
24
1.12
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.20
Conceded Std
0.88
22.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.2%
14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
1.37
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
29.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
29.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
24
0.87
Result entropy
0.92
2.28
Goal Difference Std
1.77
13.07
Stability score
7.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
24
23
Lead Matches
8
91.3%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.79
13
Trailing Matches
5
15.4%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
24
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.83
Rest days
77.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
19
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
20
Matches
20
2.60
PPG
1.10
85.0%
Win rate
30.0%
5.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
10.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
15.0%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
20
Current Competition Matches
20
2.60
Current Competition PPG
1.10
2.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.05
5
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.51
Portability PPG Std
—
1.40
Portability PPG Range
—
49.51
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
24
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO145.9
PPG0.59
GF0.45
GA0.00
PPG1.50
PPG0.80
PPG2.40
PPG2.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches33
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches33
Goals Mean0.45
Goals Std0.39
Scored 1+ rate7.7%
Scored 2+ rate12.3%
Scored 3+ rate7.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.66
History Matches33
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std0.32
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.32
History Matches33
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.51
Stability score5.13
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches33
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate16.3%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate15.4%
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches33
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.05
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days6.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches21
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.81
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.60
Current Team ELO145.9
Current Opponent ELO-145.9
Current ELO Difference291.7
Expected score0.40
History Matches33
Residual Mean0.18
Overperformance11.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.59

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Minija

W
Minija3–1Atmosfera31 Oct · home
Pick: Minija 67% · hit
L
BFA2–1Minija24 Oct · away
Pick: Minija 53% · missed
L
Minija2–3Babrungas17 Oct · home
Pick: Minija 44% · missed
W
Minija3–2Dainava1 Sep · home
Pick: Minija 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Garliava

D
Transinvest 23–3Garliava1 Nov · away
Pick: Garliava 51% · missed
L
Garliava0–2Žalgiris II23 Oct · home
Pick: Garliava 45% · missed
W
FA Šiauliai II2–3Garliava17 Oct · away
Pick: Garliava 49% · hit
L
Garliava0–1Babrungas29 Aug · home
Pick: Babrungas 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Minija and Garliava meet in 1 Lyga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Minija win 73.6%, draw 16.2%, Garliava win 10.2%. The pick is Minija win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.3%. Both teams to score: 47.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.