ScoreProb
Oberliga - Nordost-Süd Germany NOFV- Sud - 11 2026

Auerbach vs Krieschow

Auerbach Home · Elo 1,545
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Krieschow Away · Elo 1,511
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Auerbach win
Auerbach winPick
55.3%
Draw
19.9%
Krieschow win
24.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.6%
No45.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.2%
Under 2.536.8%

How much we know

Auerbach history48 matches
Krieschow history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Auerbach are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Auerbach are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,545 against 1,511. On rating alone Auerbach would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.65 goals a game over 48 matches for Auerbach, against 1.79 over 52 for Krieschow.

  • Auerbach concede fewer

    Auerbach concede 1.25 a game, Krieschow 1.69.

  • Krieschow games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Auerbach matches, against 67% for Krieschow. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Auerbach
Krieschow
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1545.0
ELO
1511.0
48
ELO · Matches
52
1545.0
Current Team ELO
1511.0
1511.0
Current Opponent ELO
1545.0
33.97
Current ELO Difference
-33.97
0.55
Expected score
0.45
48
History Matches
52
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
52.93
Overperformance
50.38
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
1.60
Goals against per game
4.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.30
1.50
Goals for per game
1.10
1.50
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.65
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.32
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
52
1.60
PPG
1.60
43.8%
Win rate
48.1%
29.2%
Draw rate
15.4%
27.1%
Loss rate
36.5%
85.4%
Over 1.5 rate
86.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
67.3%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.4%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
27
1.74
PPG
1.59
43.5%
Win rate
48.1%
43.5%
Draw rate
14.8%
13.0%
Loss rate
37.0%
87.0%
Over 1.5 rate
92.6%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
40.7%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
23
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.65
Goals for per game
1.79
83.3%
Scoring rate
80.8%
56.3%
BTTS rate
63.5%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.89
87.0%
Scoring rate
81.5%
60.9%
BTTS rate
70.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
48
History Matches
52
1.65
Goals Mean
1.79
1.25
Goals Std
1.41
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
80.8%
43.8%
Scored 2+ rate
48.1%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
32.7%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.69
68.8%
Conceding rate
82.7%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.56
69.6%
Conceding rate
88.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
52
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.69
1.18
Conceded Std
1.68
35.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.4%
14.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.2%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
30.4%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
52
0.98
Result entropy
0.92
1.85
Goal Difference Std
2.51
2.17
Stability score
8.25
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
52
19
Lead Matches
21
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
81.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.84
11
Trailing Matches
18
45.5%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.02
Rest days
75.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.84
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
19
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.77
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
5
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.08
Portability PPG Range
0.82
92.75
Portability Score
57.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO33.97
PPG0.01
GF-0.14
GA-0.44
PPG1.50
PPG0.15
PPG0.60
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate13.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate19.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate2.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.44
Conceded Std-0.50
Clean-sheet rate13.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.73
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.66
Stability score-6.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.91
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate3.3%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate17.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-0.74
Portability Score35.73
Rest days7.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.43
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Current Team ELO33.97
Current Opponent ELO-33.97
Current ELO Difference67.93
Expected score0.10
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Auerbach

W
Empor Glauchau0–2Auerbach1 Nov · away
Pick: Auerbach 52% · hit
W
Auerbach4–1Einheit Wernigerode24 Oct · home
Pick: Auerbach 54% · hit
W
Auerbach3–1FC Frankfurt18 Oct · home
Pick: Auerbach 79% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Krieschow

W
Krieschow4–0Einheit Rudolstadt31 Oct · home
Pick: Krieschow 42% · hit
W
Eilenburg0–1Krieschow24 Oct · away
Pick: Eilenburg 63% · missed
L
Krieschow2–4SC Freital17 Oct · home
Pick: SC Freital 48% · hit
L
Germania Halberstadt5–0Krieschow29 Aug · away
Pick: Germania Halberstadt 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Auerbach and Krieschow meet in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Auerbach win 55.3%, draw 19.9%, Krieschow win 24.8%. The pick is Auerbach win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.2%. Both teams to score: 54.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.