ScoreProb
Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar Germany Rheinland-Pfalz/Saar - 16 2026

Auersmacher vs Gonsenheim

Auersmacher Home · Elo 1,466
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gonsenheim Away · Elo 1,462
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Auersmacher win
Auersmacher winPick
39.8%
Draw
24.3%
Gonsenheim win
35.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.9%
No37.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.9%
Under 2.534.1%

How much we know

Auersmacher history52 matches
Gonsenheim history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Auersmacher are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,466 against 1,462. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.62 goals a game over 52 matches for Auersmacher, against 1.57 over 53 for Gonsenheim.

  • Defences are close

    Auersmacher concede 1.98 a game, Gonsenheim 1.79.

  • Auersmacher games more often go over 2.5 goals

    73% of Auersmacher matches, against 64% for Gonsenheim. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Auersmacher
Gonsenheim
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1465.7
ELO
1462.0
52
ELO · Matches
53
1465.7
Current Team ELO
1462.0
1462.0
Current Opponent ELO
1465.7
3.66
Current ELO Difference
-3.66
0.51
Expected score
0.49
52
History Matches
53
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.03
47.68
Overperformance
47.59
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.90
1.60
Goals for per game
1.70
2.30
Goals against per game
2.10
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
2.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
53
1.25
PPG
1.25
36.5%
Win rate
37.7%
15.4%
Draw rate
11.3%
48.1%
Loss rate
50.9%
94.2%
Over 1.5 rate
84.9%
73.1%
Over 2.5 rate
64.2%
48.1%
Over 3.5 rate
41.5%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
26
1.65
PPG
1.04
50.0%
Win rate
30.8%
15.4%
Draw rate
11.5%
34.6%
Loss rate
57.7%
96.2%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
76.9%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
46.2%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
26
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.62
Goals for per game
1.57
80.8%
Scoring rate
71.7%
63.5%
BTTS rate
58.5%
2.12
Goals for per game
1.12
92.3%
Scoring rate
69.2%
73.1%
BTTS rate
57.7%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
52
History Matches
53
1.62
Goals Mean
1.57
1.27
Goals Std
1.39
80.8%
Scored 1+ rate
71.7%
46.2%
Scored 2+ rate
43.4%
21.2%
Scored 3+ rate
28.3%
2.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.98
Goals against per game
1.79
82.7%
Conceding rate
84.9%
1.65
Goals against per game
1.96
80.8%
Conceding rate
88.5%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
52
History Matches
53
1.98
Conceded Mean
1.79
1.43
Conceded Std
1.36
61.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.6%
32.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.6%
1.65
Venue Conceded Mean
1.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.1%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
17.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.1%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
11.5%
7.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
17.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
53
0.92
Result entropy
0.87
2.16
Goal Difference Std
2.09
8.25
Stability score
12.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
53
16
Lead Matches
15
93.8%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.76
20
Trailing Matches
17
15.0%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.92
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
1.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.06
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
30
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.08
19
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
0.75
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.75
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.23
0.29
Portability PPG Range
0.57
80.10
Portability Score
68.05
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO3.66
PPG0.00
GF0.05
GA0.19
PPG0.75
PPG0.62
PPG0.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate9.1%
Scored 2+ rate2.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.01
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.19
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Conceded 2+ rate4.9%
Conceded 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.42
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score-4.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.08
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate20.4%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate3.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.28
Portability Score12.05
Rest days0.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO3.66
Current Opponent ELO-3.66
Current ELO Difference7.31
Expected score0.01
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Auersmacher

D
Ahrweiler1–1Auersmacher1 Nov · away
Pick: Auersmacher 44% · missed
L
Elversberg II4–2Auersmacher23 Oct · away
Pick: Elversberg II 41% · hit
L
Auersmacher0–3Pirmasens17 Oct · home
Pick: Pirmasens 57% · hit
L
Auersmacher0–1Mechtersheim29 Aug · home
Pick: Auersmacher 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gonsenheim

W
Gonsenheim3–1Elversberg II31 Oct · home
Pick: Gonsenheim 59% · hit
L
Pirmasens3–1Gonsenheim24 Oct · away
Pick: Pirmasens 65% · hit
W
Gonsenheim2–0TuS RW Koblenz17 Oct · home
Pick: TuS RW Koblenz 52% · missed
W
Gonsenheim6–1FV Engers 074 Oct · home
Pick: FV Engers 07 55% · missed
W
Gonsenheim6–2Wormatia Worms29 Aug · home
Pick: Wormatia Worms 50% · missed

About this match

Auersmacher and Gonsenheim meet in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Auersmacher win 39.8%, draw 24.3%, Gonsenheim win 35.9%. The pick is Auersmacher win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.9%. Both teams to score: 62.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.