ScoreProb
Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar Germany Rheinland-Pfalz/Saar - 16 2026

FC Emmelshausen-Karbach vs Mechtersheim

FC Emmelshausen-Karbach Home · Elo 1,556
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mechtersheim Away · Elo 1,496
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Emmelshausen-Karbach win
FC Emmelshausen-Karbach winPick
46.6%
Draw
19.6%
Mechtersheim win
33.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.7%
No35.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.1%
Under 2.529.9%

How much we know

FC Emmelshausen-Karbach history34 matches
Mechtersheim history19 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why FC Emmelshausen-Karbach are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • FC Emmelshausen-Karbach are rated 60 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,556 against 1,496. On rating alone FC Emmelshausen-Karbach would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • FC Emmelshausen-Karbach score far more

    2.35 goals a game over 34 matches for FC Emmelshausen-Karbach, against 1.53 over 19 for Mechtersheim.

  • Defences are close

    FC Emmelshausen-Karbach concede 1.88 a game, Mechtersheim 2.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    74% of FC Emmelshausen-Karbach matches, against 68% for Mechtersheim. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Emmelshausen-Karbach
Mechtersheim
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1556.0
ELO
1496.2
34
ELO · Matches
19
1556.0
Current Team ELO
1496.2
1496.2
Current Opponent ELO
1556.0
59.80
Current ELO Difference
-59.80
0.59
Expected score
0.41
34
History Matches
19
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.02
55.08
Overperformance
48.94
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
2.60
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.50
2.50
Goals for per game
2.00
2.40
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.41
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.40
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
2.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
19
1.82
PPG
1.26
55.9%
Win rate
36.8%
14.7%
Draw rate
15.8%
29.4%
Loss rate
47.4%
94.1%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
73.5%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
58.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.6%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
11
2.12
PPG
1.18
64.7%
Win rate
36.4%
17.6%
Draw rate
9.1%
17.6%
Loss rate
54.5%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.73
17
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.35
Goals for per game
1.53
88.2%
Scoring rate
73.7%
67.6%
BTTS rate
63.2%
2.06
Goals for per game
1.09
82.4%
Scoring rate
72.7%
52.9%
BTTS rate
63.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
34
History Matches
19
2.35
Goals Mean
1.53
1.55
Goals Std
1.31
88.2%
Scored 1+ rate
73.7%
73.5%
Scored 2+ rate
47.4%
41.2%
Scored 3+ rate
21.1%
2.06
Venue Goals Mean
1.09
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.88
Goals against per game
2.00
76.5%
Conceding rate
84.2%
1.29
Goals against per game
2.09
64.7%
Conceding rate
90.9%
2.50
Goals against per game
2.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
34
History Matches
19
1.88
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.53
Conceded Std
2.03
52.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.4%
35.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.3%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
2.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
19
0.88
Result entropy
0.92
2.12
Goal Difference Std
2.56
11.98
Stability score
7.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
33
Eligible Matches
19
16
Lead Matches
5
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.67
9
Trailing Matches
5
22.2%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
19
1.12
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.91
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
1.27
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.32
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
77.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
16
Normal Rest History Matches
8
2.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
15
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.21
Portability PPG Range
0.35
82.35
Portability Score
74.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
19
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO59.80
PPG0.56
GF0.83
GA-0.12
PPG0.25
PPG0.94
PPG-0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate26.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches15
Goals Mean0.83
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate14.6%
Scored 2+ rate26.2%
Scored 3+ rate20.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.97
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches15
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.50
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Conceded 2+ rate5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate9.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches15
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score4.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.34
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate27.5%
Lead Points Retention0.23
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score8.07
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.81
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO59.80
Current Opponent ELO-59.80
Current ELO Difference119.6
Expected score0.17
History Matches15
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance6.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Emmelshausen-Karbach

L
Wormatia Worms2–1FC Emmelshausen-Karbach31 Oct · away
Pick: Wormatia Worms 65% · hit
W
FC Emmelshausen-Karbach4–2Hertha Wiesbach24 Oct · home
Pick: FC Emmelshausen-Karbach 52% · hit
D
TuS Koblenz0–0FC Emmelshausen-Karbach17 Oct · away
Pick: TuS Koblenz 71% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mechtersheim

L
Mechtersheim0–3Schott Mainz31 Oct · home
Pick: Schott Mainz 54% · hit
W
Eisbachtal0–3Mechtersheim24 Oct · away
Pick: Mechtersheim 55% · hit
W
Mechtersheim2–1Diefflen17 Oct · home
Pick: Mechtersheim 47% · hit
W
Auersmacher0–1Mechtersheim29 Aug · away
Pick: Auersmacher 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Emmelshausen-Karbach and Mechtersheim meet in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Emmelshausen-Karbach win 46.6%, draw 19.6%, Mechtersheim win 33.8%. The pick is FC Emmelshausen-Karbach win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.1%. Both teams to score: 64.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.