ScoreProb
Campionato Primavera - 2 Italy Round 8 2026

Avellino U19 vs Palermo U19

Avellino U19 Home · Elo 1,546
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Palermo U19 Away · Elo 1,414
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Avellino U19 win
Avellino U19 winPick
51.4%
Draw
21.6%
Palermo U19 win
27.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.1%
No42.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.7%
Under 2.541.3%

How much we know

Avellino U19 history48 matches
Palermo U19 history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Avellino U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Avellino U19 are rated 132 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,546 against 1,414. On rating alone Avellino U19 would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Avellino U19 score far more

    1.71 goals a game over 48 matches for Avellino U19, against 1.05 over 44 for Palermo U19.

  • Defences are close

    Avellino U19 concede 1.52 a game, Palermo U19 1.59.

  • Avellino U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of Avellino U19 matches, against 43% for Palermo U19. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Avellino U19
Palermo U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1546.1
ELO
1413.9
48
ELO · Matches
44
1546.1
Current Team ELO
1413.9
1413.9
Current Opponent ELO
1546.1
132.2
Current ELO Difference
-132.2
0.68
Expected score
0.32
48
History Matches
44
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.10
53.33
Overperformance
43.20
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.70
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.70
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.99
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
44
1.54
PPG
0.80
39.6%
Win rate
15.9%
35.4%
Draw rate
31.8%
25.0%
Loss rate
52.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
70.5%
64.6%
Over 2.5 rate
43.2%
39.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
23
2.17
PPG
0.48
62.5%
Win rate
8.7%
29.2%
Draw rate
21.7%
8.3%
Loss rate
69.6%
95.8%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
54.2%
Over 3.5 rate
26.1%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
24
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.71
Goals for per game
1.05
72.9%
Scoring rate
54.5%
58.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.33
Goals for per game
0.96
91.7%
Scoring rate
60.9%
70.8%
BTTS rate
60.9%
48
History Matches
44
1.71
Goals Mean
1.05
1.37
Goals Std
1.52
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
54.5%
56.3%
Scored 2+ rate
20.5%
29.2%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
2.33
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.52
Goals against per game
1.59
77.1%
Conceding rate
86.4%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.96
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
44
1.52
Conceded Mean
1.59
1.38
Conceded Std
1.13
43.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.5%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.2%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
22.9%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
44
0.98
Result entropy
0.91
2.00
Goal Difference Std
1.88
1.60
Stability score
9.35
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
43
16
Lead Matches
11
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
36.4%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.52
16
Trailing Matches
14
50.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
175.0
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
26
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.68
21
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.07
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.02
0.86
Portability PPG Range
0.04
58.58
Portability Score
95.98
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO132.2
PPG0.75
GF0.66
GA-0.07
PPG1.69
PPG0.20
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.31
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.66
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate18.4%
Scored 2+ rate35.8%
Scored 3+ rate20.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.32
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.11
History Matches4
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score-7.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate32.4%
Lead Points Retention0.26
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate21.4%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.33
Portability PPG Range0.82
Portability Score-37.40
Rest days-7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.71
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.70
Current Team ELO132.2
Current Opponent ELO-132.2
Current ELO Difference264.3
Expected score0.36
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance10.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Avellino U19

W
Ascoli U190–1Avellino U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Ascoli U19 43% · missed
L
Albinoleffe U202–1Avellino U1928 Oct · away
Pick: Avellino U19 50% · missed
L
Benevento U195–2Avellino U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Avellino U19 48% · missed
L
Avellino U191–2Catanzaro U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Avellino U19 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Palermo U19

D
Palermo U192–2Catanzaro U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Palermo U19 46% · missed
W
Salernitana U191–2Palermo U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Salernitana U19 40% · missed
W
Palermo U191–0Perugia U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Perugia U19 37% · missed
W
Vicenza U190–1Palermo U1929 Aug · away
Pick: Palermo U19 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Avellino U19 and Palermo U19 meet in Campionato Primavera - 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Avellino U19 win 51.4%, draw 21.6%, Palermo U19 win 27.0%. The pick is Avellino U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.7%. Both teams to score: 57.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.