ScoreProb
Campionato Primavera - 2 Italy Round 8 2026

Cittadella U19 vs Vicenza U19

Cittadella U19 Home · Elo 1,444
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vicenza U19 Away · Elo 1,467
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cittadella U19 win
Cittadella U19 winPick
38.9%
Draw
24.0%
Vicenza U19 win
37.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.5%
Under 2.538.5%

How much we know

Cittadella U19 history46 matches
Vicenza U19 history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.9%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Cittadella U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,444 against 1,467. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.39 goals a game over 46 matches for Cittadella U19, against 1.49 over 45 for Vicenza U19.

  • Defences are close

    Cittadella U19 concede 1.78 a game, Vicenza U19 1.76.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of Cittadella U19 matches, against 60% for Vicenza U19. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cittadella U19
Vicenza U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1443.6
ELO
1467.3
46
ELO · Matches
45
1443.6
Current Team ELO
1467.3
1467.3
Current Opponent ELO
1443.6
-23.69
Current ELO Difference
23.69
0.47
Expected score
0.53
46
History Matches
45
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.04
46.00
Overperformance
47.13
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
2.60
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.20
0.70
Goals for per game
1.50
1.70
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.41
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.67
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
45
1.22
PPG
1.16
32.6%
Win rate
28.9%
23.9%
Draw rate
28.9%
43.5%
Loss rate
42.2%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
41.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
24
0.92
PPG
1.21
25.0%
Win rate
29.2%
16.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
58.3%
Loss rate
37.5%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
45.8%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.18
24
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.39
Goals for per game
1.49
67.4%
Scoring rate
80.0%
52.2%
BTTS rate
75.6%
1.04
Goals for per game
1.42
62.5%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
70.8%
46
History Matches
45
1.39
Goals Mean
1.49
1.33
Goals Std
1.09
67.4%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
37.0%
Scored 2+ rate
46.7%
26.1%
Scored 3+ rate
17.8%
1.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.78
Goals against per game
1.76
73.9%
Conceding rate
93.3%
1.96
Goals against per game
1.58
79.2%
Conceding rate
91.7%
46
History Matches
45
1.78
Conceded Mean
1.76
1.53
Conceded Std
1.12
58.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.9%
23.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.2%
1.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
6.7%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
6.7%
32.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
6.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
45
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
2.03
Goal Difference Std
1.39
2.63
Stability score
1.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
43
10
Lead Matches
10
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
30.0%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.40
15
Trailing Matches
12
20.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.12
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.94
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
18
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.04
0.22
Portability PPG Range
0.07
81.71
Portability Score
93.15
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-23.69
PPG0.06
GF-0.10
GA0.03
PPG-0.29
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate19.4%
Failed-to-score rate12.6%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate12.5%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate8.3%
Venue Goals Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std0.41
Clean-sheet rate19.4%
Conceded 2+ rate9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.64
Stability score1.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.24
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate60.0%
Lead Points Retention0.53
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.15
Portability Score-11.44
Rest days-105.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO-23.69
Current Opponent ELO23.69
Current ELO Difference-47.37
Expected score-0.07
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cittadella U19

L
Cittadella U190–2Padova U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Cittadella U19 39% · missed
W
Mantova U191–2Cittadella U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Mantova U19 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Vicenza U19

L
Vicenza U190–2Cremonese U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Vicenza U19 66% · missed
D
Vicenza U192–2Sampdoria U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Vicenza U19 44% · missed
L
Vicenza U190–1Palermo U1929 Aug · home
Pick: Palermo U19 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Cittadella U19 and Vicenza U19 meet in Campionato Primavera - 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Cittadella U19 win 38.9%, draw 24.0%, Vicenza U19 win 37.1%. The pick is Cittadella U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.5%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.