ScoreProb
Campionato Primavera - 2 Italy Round 8 2026

Brescia U19 vs Padova U19

Brescia U19 Home · Elo 1,435
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Padova U19 Away · Elo 1,402
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Padova U19 win
Brescia U19 win
34.9%
Draw
24.7%
Padova U19 winPick
40.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.9%
No46.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.6%
Under 2.544.4%

How much we know

Brescia U19 history45 matches
Padova U19 history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Padova U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Brescia U19 are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,435 against 1,402. On rating alone Brescia U19 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.11 goals a game over 45 matches for Brescia U19, against 1.02 over 48 for Padova U19.

  • Brescia U19 concede fewer

    Brescia U19 concede 1.49 a game, Padova U19 1.69.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Brescia U19 matches, against 54% for Padova U19. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Brescia U19
Padova U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1434.7
ELO
1402.4
45
ELO · Matches
48
1434.7
Current Team ELO
1402.4
1402.4
Current Opponent ELO
1434.7
32.32
Current ELO Difference
-32.32
0.55
Expected score
0.45
45
History Matches
48
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.10
44.89
Overperformance
42.84
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.81
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
48
1.09
PPG
0.75
31.1%
Win rate
16.7%
15.6%
Draw rate
25.0%
53.3%
Loss rate
58.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
31.1%
Over 3.5 rate
27.1%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
25
0.91
PPG
0.60
27.3%
Win rate
16.0%
9.1%
Draw rate
12.0%
63.6%
Loss rate
72.0%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
64.0%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
22
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.11
Goals for per game
1.02
66.7%
Scoring rate
68.8%
55.6%
BTTS rate
62.5%
0.95
Goals for per game
1.16
59.1%
Scoring rate
76.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
68.0%
45
History Matches
48
1.11
Goals Mean
1.02
1.06
Goals Std
0.90
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
68.8%
28.9%
Scored 2+ rate
25.0%
13.3%
Scored 3+ rate
8.3%
0.95
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.49
Goals against per game
1.69
84.4%
Conceding rate
85.4%
1.45
Goals against per game
2.00
86.4%
Conceding rate
92.0%
45
History Matches
48
1.49
Conceded Mean
1.69
1.05
Conceded Std
1.19
42.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.1%
17.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.9%
1.45
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
15.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
15.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
40.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
15.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
48
0.90
Result entropy
0.87
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.30
10.07
Stability score
12.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
47
5
Lead Matches
7
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.76
15
Trailing Matches
19
20.0%
Non-loss rate
21.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.19
Rest days
168.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.89
14
Long Rest History Matches
18
0.93
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.61
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.14
Portability PPG Range
0.31
87.50
Portability Score
76.19
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO32.32
PPG0.34
GF0.09
GA-0.20
PPG0.31
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate1.0%
Failed-to-score rate2.1%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate16.9%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.09
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate3.9%
Scored 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Goals Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.29
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.15
Clean-sheet rate1.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score-2.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate28.6%
Lead Points Retention0.24
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score11.31
Rest days-90.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO32.32
Current Opponent ELO-32.32
Current ELO Difference64.64
Expected score0.09
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Brescia U19

D
Renate U190–0Brescia U1931 Oct · away
Pick: Renate U19 36% · missed
L
Monza U205–1Brescia U1927 Oct · away
Pick: Monza U20 53% · hit
L
Brescia U191–3Lecco U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Brescia U19 46% · missed
L
Sampdoria U195–1Brescia U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Brescia U19 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Padova U19

W
Cittadella U190–2Padova U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Cittadella U19 39% · missed
L
Renate U192–1Padova U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Padova U19 37% · missed
L
Bari U191–0Padova U1929 Aug · away
Pick: Bari U19 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Brescia U19 and Padova U19 meet in Campionato Primavera - 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Brescia U19 win 34.9%, draw 24.7%, Padova U19 win 40.4%. The pick is Padova U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.6%. Both teams to score: 53.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.