ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Northern England Round 18 2026

Avro vs Warrington Town

Avro Home · Elo 1,632
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Warrington Town Away · Elo 1,441
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Avro win
Avro winPick
55.1%
Draw
18.5%
Warrington Town win
26.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.2%
No42.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.1%
Under 2.534.9%

How much we know

Avro history55 matches
Warrington Town history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Avro are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Avro are rated 192 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,632 against 1,441. On rating alone Avro would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Avro score far more

    2.05 goals a game over 55 matches for Avro, against 1.01 over 73 for Warrington Town.

  • Avro concede fewer

    Avro concede 1.13 a game, Warrington Town 1.66.

  • Avro games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of Avro matches, against 52% for Warrington Town. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Avro
Warrington Town
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1632.4
ELO
1440.7
55
ELO · Matches
73
1632.4
Current Team ELO
1440.7
1440.7
Current Opponent ELO
1632.4
191.6
Current ELO Difference
-191.6
0.75
Expected score
0.25
55
History Matches
73
0.12
Residual Mean
-0.03
58.49
Overperformance
47.31
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.00
2.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.30
3.90
Goals for per game
1.50
1.20
Goals against per game
1.50
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
3.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.12
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
4.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
73
1.96
PPG
0.96
58.2%
Win rate
24.7%
21.8%
Draw rate
21.9%
20.0%
Loss rate
53.4%
83.6%
Over 1.5 rate
82.2%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.1%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
24.7%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
35
2.15
PPG
0.77
66.7%
Win rate
20.0%
14.8%
Draw rate
17.1%
18.5%
Loss rate
62.9%
92.6%
Over 1.5 rate
88.6%
77.8%
Over 2.5 rate
62.9%
48.1%
Over 3.5 rate
37.1%
2.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
27
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.05
Goals for per game
1.01
87.3%
Scoring rate
56.2%
60.0%
BTTS rate
45.2%
2.48
Goals for per game
1.09
92.6%
Scoring rate
62.9%
66.7%
BTTS rate
60.0%
2.60
Goals for per game
2.17
80.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
60.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
55
History Matches
73
2.05
Goals Mean
1.01
1.97
Goals Std
1.15
87.3%
Scored 1+ rate
56.2%
54.5%
Scored 2+ rate
30.1%
30.9%
Scored 3+ rate
9.6%
2.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.09
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.13
Goals against per game
1.66
70.9%
Conceding rate
80.8%
1.30
Goals against per game
2.06
74.1%
Conceding rate
97.1%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.17
80.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
73
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.66
1.01
Conceded Std
1.36
27.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.7%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.5%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
2.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
12.7%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
2.9%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
12.7%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
2.9%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
29.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
73
0.88
Result entropy
0.92
2.42
Goal Difference Std
2.03
11.78
Stability score
7.81
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
72
18
Lead Matches
15
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.73
11
Trailing Matches
29
45.5%
Non-loss rate
17.2%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
6.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
35
Normal Rest History Matches
63
1.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.05
12
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
6
2.40
PPG
2.17
80.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
20.0%
Loss rate
16.7%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.77
5
Current Competition Matches
6
2.40
Current Competition PPG
2.17
1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.75
0.69
Portability PPG Range
2.17
62.75
Portability Score
39.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO191.6
PPG1.00
GF1.04
GA-0.53
PPG0.23
PPG1.38
PPG0.40
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate9.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.31
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate23.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches-18
Goals Mean1.04
Goals Std0.81
Scored 1+ rate31.1%
Scored 2+ rate24.4%
Scored 3+ rate21.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.40
Recent 10 Goals Std2.01
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean-0.53
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate9.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.76
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches-18
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.39
Stability score3.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.61
Eligible Matches-24
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate22.2%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-18
Non-loss rate28.2%
Trailing Win Rate11.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-24
First Half Goals For Mean0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.23
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.40
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.46
Portability PPG Range-1.48
Portability Score22.90
Rest days3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match2.21
Normal Rest History Matches-28
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.87
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match1.32
Current Team ELO191.6
Current Opponent ELO-191.6
Current ELO Difference383.2
Expected score0.50
History Matches-18
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance11.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Avro

D
Bury2–2Avro3 Nov · away
Pick: Avro 51% · missed
L
Cleethorpes Town1–0Avro31 Oct · away
Pick: Cleethorpes Town 54% · hit
W
Avro2–1Hyde United24 Oct · home
Pick: Hyde United 47% · missed
W
Avro3–2Ashton United21 Oct · home
Pick: Avro 47% · hit
L
Ilkeston Town2–0Avro17 Oct · away
Pick: Avro 53% · missed

Warrington Town

W
Ashton United0–1Warrington Town3 Nov · away
Pick: Ashton United 47% · missed
L
Quorn3–2Warrington Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Warrington Town 45% · missed
L
Warrington Town1–2Gainsborough Trinity24 Oct · home
Pick: Warrington Town 36% · missed
D
Alfreton Town1–1Warrington Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Alfreton Town 40% · missed
W
Bamber Bridge0–1Warrington Town13 Oct · away
Pick: Warrington Town 49% · hit

About this match

Avro and Warrington Town meet in Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Avro win 55.1%, draw 18.5%, Warrington Town win 26.4%. The pick is Avro win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.1%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.