ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Northern England Round 18 2026

Stockton Town vs Curzon Ashton

Stockton Town Home · Elo 1,518
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Curzon Ashton Away · Elo 1,452
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stockton Town win
Stockton Town winPick
38.5%
Draw
23.8%
Curzon Ashton win
37.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.2%
No43.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.5%
Under 2.543.5%

How much we know

Stockton Town history70 matches
Curzon Ashton history81 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Stockton Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stockton Town are rated 67 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,518 against 1,452. On rating alone Stockton Town would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.36 goals a game over 70 matches for Stockton Town, against 1.41 over 81 for Curzon Ashton.

  • Stockton Town concede fewer

    Stockton Town concede 1.29 a game, Curzon Ashton 1.62.

  • Curzon Ashton games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Stockton Town matches, against 60% for Curzon Ashton. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stockton Town
Curzon Ashton
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.5
ELO
1451.9
70
ELO · Matches
81
1518.5
Current Team ELO
1451.9
1451.9
Current Opponent ELO
1518.5
66.60
Current ELO Difference
-66.60
0.59
Expected score
0.41
70
History Matches
81
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.03
50.69
Overperformance
47.77
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.10
0.80
Goals for per game
1.50
1.50
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.35
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
81
1.59
PPG
1.23
45.7%
Win rate
32.1%
21.4%
Draw rate
27.2%
32.9%
Loss rate
40.7%
74.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.5%
27.1%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
40
1.71
PPG
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
32.5%
20.6%
Draw rate
32.5%
29.4%
Loss rate
35.0%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
55.9%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
38.2%
Over 3.5 rate
42.5%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
34
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.41
78.6%
Scoring rate
76.5%
52.9%
BTTS rate
58.0%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.65
88.2%
Scoring rate
85.0%
55.9%
BTTS rate
65.0%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.83
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
70
History Matches
81
1.36
Goals Mean
1.41
1.10
Goals Std
1.21
78.6%
Scored 1+ rate
76.5%
40.0%
Scored 2+ rate
35.8%
11.4%
Scored 3+ rate
19.8%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.62
70.0%
Conceding rate
79.0%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.68
64.7%
Conceding rate
77.5%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.50
83.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
70
History Matches
81
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.62
1.20
Conceded Std
1.40
35.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.7%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.5%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.0%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.0%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.5%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
81
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.74
Goal Difference Std
2.02
4.09
Stability score
1.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
81
24
Lead Matches
19
70.8%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.84
22
Trailing Matches
27
22.7%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
13.6%
Trailing Win Rate
3.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
57
Normal Rest History Matches
72
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
8
Long Rest History Matches
4
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
0.67
PPG
1.17
16.7%
Win rate
33.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
66.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
6
Current Competition Matches
6
0.67
Current Competition PPG
1.17
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
7
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.14
1.52
Portability PPG Range
0.35
44.37
Portability Score
78.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
81
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO66.60
PPG0.35
GF-0.05
GA-0.33
PPG-0.50
PPG0.41
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate9.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate12.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.05
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate2.0%
Scored 2+ rate4.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.46
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.20
Clean-sheet rate9.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.23
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.27
Stability score2.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.39
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate0.5%
Trailing Win Rate9.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.31
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.49
Portability PPG Range1.18
Portability Score-33.96
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.36
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match1.00
Current Team ELO66.60
Current Opponent ELO-66.60
Current ELO Difference133.2
Expected score0.19
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stockton Town

W
Whitby Town0–5Stockton Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Stockton Town 47% · hit
L
Stockton Town1–3AFC Emley17 Oct · home
Pick: Stockton Town 50% · missed
L
Lancaster City1–0Stockton Town13 Oct · away
Pick: Lancaster City 41% · hit
W
Stockton Town1–0Bury6 Oct · home
Pick: Bury 39% · missed
L
Stockton Town0–2Redcar Athletic31 Aug · home
Pick: Redcar Athletic 46% · hit

Curzon Ashton

W
Curzon Ashton1–0United of Manchester3 Nov · home
Pick: Curzon Ashton 50% · hit
W
Curzon Ashton2–1Leek Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Curzon Ashton 42% · hit
W
Gainsborough Trinity0–3Curzon Ashton27 Oct · away
Pick: Gainsborough Trinity 57% · missed
L
Whitby Town1–0Curzon Ashton17 Oct · away
Pick: Curzon Ashton 49% · missed
L
Rylands5–1Curzon Ashton13 Oct · away
Pick: Curzon Ashton 39% · missed

About this match

Stockton Town and Curzon Ashton meet in Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Stockton Town win 38.5%, draw 23.8%, Curzon Ashton win 37.7%. The pick is Stockton Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.5%. Both teams to score: 56.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.