ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Northern England Round 18 2026

Hyde United vs Redcar Athletic

Hyde United Home · Elo 1,465
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Redcar Athletic Away · Elo 1,590
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Redcar Athletic win
Hyde United win
26.2%
Draw
21.0%
Redcar Athletic winPick
52.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%
No47.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.5%
Under 2.537.5%

How much we know

Hyde United history75 matches
Redcar Athletic history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Redcar Athletic are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Redcar Athletic are rated 125 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,590 against 1,465. On rating alone Redcar Athletic would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Redcar Athletic score far more

    1.23 goals a game over 75 matches for Hyde United, against 2.29 over 34 for Redcar Athletic.

  • Redcar Athletic concede fewer

    Hyde United concede 1.52 a game, Redcar Athletic 1.21.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Hyde United matches, against 56% for Redcar Athletic. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hyde United
Redcar Athletic
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1464.9
ELO
1590.2
75
ELO · Matches
34
1464.9
Current Team ELO
1590.2
1590.2
Current Opponent ELO
1464.9
-125.3
Current ELO Difference
125.3
0.33
Expected score
0.67
75
History Matches
34
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.13
48.87
Overperformance
58.19
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.20
0.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.80
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.50
1.70
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.24
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
34
1.23
PPG
1.91
32.0%
Win rate
52.9%
26.7%
Draw rate
32.4%
41.3%
Loss rate
14.7%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.9%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
17
1.41
PPG
1.82
39.0%
Win rate
47.1%
24.4%
Draw rate
41.2%
36.6%
Loss rate
11.8%
68.3%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
53.7%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
39.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.39
41
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.23
Goals for per game
2.29
73.3%
Scoring rate
76.5%
52.0%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.39
Goals for per game
2.12
75.6%
Scoring rate
76.5%
48.8%
BTTS rate
52.9%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.67
33.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
16.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
75
History Matches
34
1.23
Goals Mean
2.29
1.08
Goals Std
2.15
73.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.5%
34.7%
Scored 2+ rate
52.9%
9.3%
Scored 3+ rate
38.2%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
2.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.52
Goals against per game
1.21
76.0%
Conceding rate
58.8%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.06
68.3%
Conceding rate
52.9%
1.50
Goals against per game
0.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
75
History Matches
34
1.52
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.25
Conceded Std
1.39
45.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.4%
21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.7%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
47.1%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
34
0.99
Result entropy
0.90
1.73
Goal Difference Std
2.51
1.49
Stability score
10.46
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
26
21
Lead Matches
8
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.92
24
Trailing Matches
7
20.8%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
4.2%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
26
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.35
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
58
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.05
13
Long Rest History Matches
10
0.54
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.17
PPG
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
50.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.17
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
7
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.25
Portability PPG Range
1.13
55.08
Portability Score
49.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-125.3
PPG-0.69
GF-1.07
GA0.31
PPG-0.83
PPG-0.41
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches41
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate3.1%
History Matches24
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate0.9%
History Matches41
Goals Mean-1.07
Goals Std-1.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.29
Venue Goals Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.70
History Matches41
Conceded Mean0.31
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches41
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.79
Stability score-8.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.49
Eligible Matches49
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches17
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches49
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.83
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.33
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.10
Portability PPG Range0.12
Portability Score5.33
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches37
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.65
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.06
Current Team ELO-125.3
Current Opponent ELO125.3
Current ELO Difference-250.7
Expected score-0.35
History Matches41
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-9.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hyde United

L
Ilkeston Town1–0Hyde United31 Oct · away
Pick: Ilkeston Town 46% · hit
L
Avro2–1Hyde United24 Oct · away
Pick: Hyde United 47% · missed
L
Gainsborough Trinity4–0Hyde United17 Oct · away
Pick: Gainsborough Trinity 59% · hit
D
Hyde United2–2Quorn13 Oct · home
Pick: Hyde United 44% · missed
L
Cleethorpes Town1–0Hyde United6 Oct · away
Pick: Cleethorpes Town 63% · hit

Redcar Athletic

D
Redcar Athletic2–2Guiseley AFC31 Oct · home
Pick: Redcar Athletic 39% · missed
L
Ashton United1–0Redcar Athletic24 Oct · away
Pick: Ashton United 62% · hit
W
Ashton United1–2Redcar Athletic17 Oct · away
Pick: Ashton United 40% · missed
W
Redcar Athletic3–1Avro13 Oct · home
Pick: Avro 42% · missed
L
Curzon Ashton3–1Redcar Athletic6 Oct · away
Pick: Redcar Athletic 42% · missed

About this match

Hyde United and Redcar Athletic meet in Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hyde United win 26.2%, draw 21.0%, Redcar Athletic win 52.8%. The pick is Redcar Athletic win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.5%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.