ScoreProb
Segunda Liga Portugal Round 10 2026

AVS vs Vizela

AVS Home · Elo 1,440
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Vizela Away · Elo 1,507
Estádio do CD das Aves, Vila das Aves Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: AVS win
AVS winPick
41.9%
Draw
26.5%
Vizela win
31.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.1%
No48.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.6%
Under 2.551.4%

How much we know

AVS history65 matches
Vizela history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why AVS are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vizela are rated 67 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,507 against 1,440. On rating alone Vizela would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Vizela score more

    0.98 goals a game over 65 matches for AVS, against 1.28 over 61 for Vizela.

  • Vizela concede fewer

    AVS concede 1.78 a game, Vizela 1.13.

  • AVS games more often go over 2.5 goals

    52% of AVS matches, against 43% for Vizela. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AVS
Vizela
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1439.5
ELO
1506.6
65
ELO · Matches
61
1439.5
Current Team ELO
1506.6
1506.6
Current Opponent ELO
1439.5
-67.07
Current ELO Difference
67.07
0.40
Expected score
0.60
65
History Matches
61
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.01
46.23
Overperformance
50.78
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.30
Goals for per game
0.70
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
61
0.82
PPG
1.59
15.4%
Win rate
44.3%
35.4%
Draw rate
26.2%
49.2%
Loss rate
29.5%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
63.9%
52.3%
Over 2.5 rate
42.6%
35.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.0%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
28
0.73
PPG
1.61
13.3%
Win rate
46.4%
33.3%
Draw rate
21.4%
53.3%
Loss rate
32.1%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
30
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.98
Goals for per game
1.28
58.5%
Scoring rate
72.1%
46.2%
BTTS rate
45.9%
0.90
Goals for per game
1.18
56.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
46.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
33.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
65
History Matches
61
0.98
Goals Mean
1.28
1.18
Goals Std
1.20
58.5%
Scored 1+ rate
72.1%
26.2%
Scored 2+ rate
32.8%
7.7%
Scored 3+ rate
13.1%
0.90
Venue Goals Mean
1.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.78
Goals against per game
1.13
80.0%
Conceding rate
67.2%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.18
83.3%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
65
History Matches
61
1.78
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.40
Conceded Std
1.05
55.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.1%
26.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.1%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
41.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
43.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
41.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
43.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
61
0.91
Result entropy
0.98
2.01
Goal Difference Std
1.60
8.57
Stability score
2.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
58
7
Lead Matches
18
42.9%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.62
Lead Points Retention
0.81
24
Trailing Matches
15
29.2%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.29
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.36
Rest days
76.24
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
31
Normal Rest History Matches
31
0.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
30
Long Rest History Matches
29
0.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.67
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
66.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.67
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
6
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.51
Portability PPG Std
0.63
1.38
Portability PPG Range
1.78
49.50
Portability Score
44.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-67.07
PPG-0.77
GF-0.29
GA0.65
PPG-0.67
PPG-0.87
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate13.7%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate14.8%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.65
Conceded Std0.35
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate24.2%
Conceded 3+ rate13.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.38
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.41
Stability score6.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.13
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.29
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.39
Portability Score5.30
Rest days-0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.23
Current Team ELO-67.07
Current Opponent ELO67.07
Current ELO Difference-134.1
Expected score-0.19
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.55
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AVS

L
União de Leiria2–1AVS31 Oct · away
Pick: União de Leiria 53% · hit
W
AVS2–1Tondela25 Oct · home
Pick: AVS 44% · hit
W
AVS2–0Feirense30 Aug · home
Pick: AVS 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Vizela

W
Vizela2–1Academica1 Nov · home
Pick: Academica 41% · missed
L
Chaves2–1Vizela23 Oct · away
Pick: Chaves 39% · hit
L
Atlético CP1–0Vizela17 Oct · away
Pick: Vizela 40% · missed
W
Torreense0–3Vizela29 Aug · away
Pick: Torreense 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

AVS and Vizela meet in Segunda Liga on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:45 UTC. The match is played at Estádio do CD das Aves, Vila das Aves. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: AVS win 41.9%, draw 26.5%, Vizela win 31.6%. The pick is AVS win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.6%. Both teams to score: 51.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.