ScoreProb
Segunda Liga Portugal Round 10 2026

Chaves vs Penafiel

Chaves Home · Elo 1,483
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Penafiel Away · Elo 1,450
Estadio Municipal de Chaves Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chaves win
Chaves winPick
42.2%
Draw
25.0%
Penafiel win
32.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.2%
No51.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.6%
Under 2.553.4%

How much we know

Chaves history64 matches
Penafiel history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Chaves are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Chaves are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,483 against 1,450. On rating alone Chaves would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Chaves score more

    1.20 goals a game over 64 matches for Chaves, against 1.00 over 56 for Penafiel.

  • Chaves concede fewer

    Chaves concede 1.14 a game, Penafiel 1.32.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Chaves matches, against 39% for Penafiel. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chaves
Penafiel
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1482.9
ELO
1449.7
64
ELO · Matches
56
1482.9
Current Team ELO
1449.7
1449.7
Current Opponent ELO
1482.9
33.21
Current ELO Difference
-33.21
0.55
Expected score
0.45
64
History Matches
56
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.04
49.40
Overperformance
46.90
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.00
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
2.40
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.10
1.30
Goals for per game
1.10
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.57
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
56
1.39
PPG
0.98
40.6%
Win rate
25.0%
17.2%
Draw rate
23.2%
42.2%
Loss rate
51.8%
67.2%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
39.3%
20.3%
Over 3.5 rate
19.6%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
28
1.44
PPG
0.64
41.2%
Win rate
14.3%
20.6%
Draw rate
21.4%
38.2%
Loss rate
64.3%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
64.3%
38.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
20.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
34
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
68.8%
Scoring rate
60.7%
40.6%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.29
Goals for per game
0.93
76.5%
Scoring rate
57.1%
47.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
64
History Matches
56
1.20
Goals Mean
1.00
1.03
Goals Std
1.02
68.8%
Scored 1+ rate
60.7%
40.6%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
7.8%
Scored 3+ rate
8.9%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
0.93
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.32
65.6%
Conceding rate
69.6%
1.15
Goals against per game
1.68
67.6%
Conceding rate
78.6%
2.33
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
64
History Matches
56
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.07
Conceded Std
1.20
34.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.1%
10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
32.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
56
0.94
Result entropy
0.93
1.48
Goal Difference Std
1.44
6.00
Stability score
6.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
55
17
Lead Matches
9
64.7%
Lead Win Rate
55.6%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.67
11
Trailing Matches
18
9.1%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.17
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.09
27
Long Rest History Matches
31
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
6
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.42
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.00
43.49
Portability Score
54.28
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO33.21
PPG0.41
GF0.20
GA-0.18
PPG-1.00
PPG0.80
PPG-0.80
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate4.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate10.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate8.0%
Scored 2+ rate12.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.14
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate4.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.36
History Matches8
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score-0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.45
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate9.2%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.23
Portability PPG Range1.00
Portability Score-10.79
Rest days0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.28
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.58
Current Team ELO33.21
Current Opponent ELO-33.21
Current ELO Difference66.43
Expected score0.10
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chaves

L
Benfica B3–1Chaves31 Oct · away
Pick: Benfica B 59% · hit
W
Chaves2–1Vizela23 Oct · home
Pick: Chaves 39% · hit
W
Chaves2–1Os Marialvas16 Oct · home
Pick: Chaves 53% · hit
L
Farense4–0Chaves4 Oct · away
Pick: Farense 53% · hit
L
Felgueiras 19322–1Chaves30 Aug · away
Pick: Felgueiras 1932 53% · hit

Penafiel

W
Penafiel1–0Feirense2 Nov · home
Pick: Penafiel 44% · hit
W
Farense1–4Penafiel24 Oct · away
Pick: Farense 55% · missed
W
FC Porto B0–3Penafiel30 Aug · away
Pick: FC Porto B 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chaves and Penafiel meet in Segunda Liga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal de Chaves. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chaves win 42.2%, draw 25.0%, Penafiel win 32.7%. The pick is Chaves win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.6%. Both teams to score: 48.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.