ScoreProb
Thai League 1 Thailand Round 8 2026

Ayutthaya FC vs Pattani

Ayutthaya FC Home · Elo 1,501
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pattani Away · Elo 1,571
Ayutthaya Province Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ayutthaya FC win
Ayutthaya FC winPick
50.6%
Draw
18.6%
Pattani win
30.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.2%
No45.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.7%
Under 2.543.3%

How much we know

Ayutthaya FC history49 matches
Pattani history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Ayutthaya FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pattani are rated 70 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,571 against 1,501. On rating alone Pattani would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.49 goals a game over 49 matches for Ayutthaya FC, against 1.47 over 43 for Pattani.

  • Defences are close

    Ayutthaya FC concede 1.43 a game, Pattani 1.35.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Ayutthaya FC matches, against 60% for Pattani. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ayutthaya FC
Pattani
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1501.0
ELO
1570.8
49
ELO · Matches
43
1501.0
Current Team ELO
1570.8
1570.8
Current Opponent ELO
1501.0
-69.86
Current ELO Difference
69.86
0.40
Expected score
0.60
49
History Matches
43
0.00
Residual Mean
0.09
50.19
Overperformance
55.93
-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.60
3.60
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
2.00
0.60
Goals for per game
1.50
2.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.12
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
43
1.39
PPG
1.77
38.8%
Win rate
51.2%
22.4%
Draw rate
23.3%
38.8%
Loss rate
25.6%
73.5%
Over 1.5 rate
79.1%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.5%
36.7%
Over 3.5 rate
27.9%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
20
1.52
PPG
1.45
44.0%
Win rate
40.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
36.0%
Loss rate
35.0%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
25
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.49
Goals for per game
1.47
73.5%
Scoring rate
72.1%
51.0%
BTTS rate
60.5%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.25
84.0%
Scoring rate
65.0%
56.0%
BTTS rate
55.0%
49
History Matches
43
1.49
Goals Mean
1.47
1.50
Goals Std
1.17
73.5%
Scored 1+ rate
72.1%
36.7%
Scored 2+ rate
51.2%
16.3%
Scored 3+ rate
18.6%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.43
Goals against per game
1.35
73.5%
Conceding rate
79.1%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.50
72.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
49
History Matches
43
1.43
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.29
Conceded Std
1.10
38.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.6%
18.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.6%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
43
0.97
Result entropy
0.94
2.16
Goal Difference Std
1.57
2.60
Stability score
6.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
43
17
Lead Matches
10
64.7%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.93
19
Trailing Matches
14
15.8%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
35.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
174.0
Rest days
168.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.20
19
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.63
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
25
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.12
1.18
Portability PPG Range
0.24
50.45
Portability Score
80.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-69.86
PPG-0.38
GF0.02
GA0.08
PPG0.07
PPG-2.00
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate1.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.51
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.45
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Conceded 2+ rate6.2%
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.62
History Matches6
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.59
Stability score-3.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.38
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.34
Trailing Win Rate-0.25
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.37
Portability PPG Range0.95
Portability Score-30.40
Rest days5.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.30
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches14
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.79
Current Team ELO-69.86
Current Opponent ELO69.86
Current ELO Difference-139.7
Expected score-0.20
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ayutthaya FC

W
Sukhothai FC0–3Ayutthaya FC1 Nov · away
Pick: Ayutthaya FC 36% · hit
W
Rasi Salai United1–4Ayutthaya FC25 Oct · away
Pick: Rasi Salai United 39% · missed
W
Ayutthaya FC2–1Muangthong United21 Oct · home
Pick: Muangthong United 43% · missed
L
Ayutthaya FC0–2Lamphun Warrior16 Oct · home
Pick: Lamphun Warrior 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pattani

L
Lamphun Warrior3–1Pattani25 Oct · away
Pick: Lamphun Warrior 54% · hit
L
Ratchaburi4–2Pattani21 Oct · away
Pick: Ratchaburi 64% · hit
L
Pattani0–1Buriram United18 Oct · home
Pick: Buriram United 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ayutthaya FC and Pattani meet in Thai League 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Ayutthaya Province Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ayutthaya FC win 50.6%, draw 18.6%, Pattani win 30.8%. The pick is Ayutthaya FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.7%. Both teams to score: 54.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.