ScoreProb
Thai League 1 Thailand Round 8 2026

Port FC vs Chonburi FC

Port FC Home · Elo 1,669
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chonburi FC Away · Elo 1,551
PAT Stadium, Bangkok Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Port FC win
Port FC winPick
59.9%
Draw
23.1%
Chonburi FC win
16.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.9%
No43.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.1%
Under 2.540.9%

How much we know

Port FC history59 matches
Chonburi FC history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Port FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Port FC are rated 118 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,669 against 1,551. On rating alone Port FC would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Port FC score more

    2.14 goals a game over 59 matches for Port FC, against 1.55 over 49 for Chonburi FC.

  • Port FC concede fewer

    Port FC concede 0.95 a game, Chonburi FC 1.29.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Port FC matches, against 53% for Chonburi FC. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 2 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Port FC
Chonburi FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1669.2
ELO
1550.8
59
ELO · Matches
49
1669.2
Current Team ELO
1550.8
1550.8
Current Opponent ELO
1669.2
118.4
Current ELO Difference
-118.4
0.66
Expected score
0.34
59
History Matches
49
0.13
Residual Mean
0.05
60.05
Overperformance
53.78
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.70
2.10
Goals for per game
1.70
0.90
Goals against per game
1.70
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.14
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
49
2.00
PPG
1.57
61.0%
Win rate
44.9%
16.9%
Draw rate
22.4%
22.0%
Loss rate
32.7%
76.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.5%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
35.6%
Over 3.5 rate
32.7%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
24
2.26
PPG
1.33
66.7%
Win rate
37.5%
25.9%
Draw rate
20.8%
7.4%
Loss rate
41.7%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.8%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
27
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.14
Goals for per game
1.55
78.0%
Scoring rate
69.4%
44.1%
BTTS rate
53.1%
2.70
Goals for per game
1.33
81.5%
Scoring rate
58.3%
44.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
59
History Matches
49
2.14
Goals Mean
1.55
2.00
Goals Std
1.42
78.0%
Scored 1+ rate
69.4%
61.0%
Scored 2+ rate
46.9%
30.5%
Scored 3+ rate
24.5%
2.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.95
Goals against per game
1.29
59.3%
Conceding rate
77.6%
0.78
Goals against per game
1.42
51.9%
Conceding rate
83.3%
59
History Matches
49
0.95
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.08
Conceded Std
1.09
22.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.7%
8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.2%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.6%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
49
0.85
Result entropy
0.97
2.43
Goal Difference Std
1.83
14.84
Stability score
3.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
49
30
Lead Matches
16
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.75
13
Trailing Matches
13
38.5%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
23.1%
Trailing Win Rate
23.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
1.08
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
97.98
Rest days
181.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
26
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.96
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
26
Long Rest History Matches
20
2.15
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
9
Competition Season Count
5
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.44
1.67
Portability PPG Range
0.95
44.05
Portability Score
53.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO118.4
PPG0.43
GF0.58
GA-0.34
PPG0.93
PPG1.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate18.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate31.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches10
Goals Mean0.58
Goals Std0.58
Scored 1+ rate8.6%
Scored 2+ rate14.1%
Scored 3+ rate6.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches10
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate18.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.57
History Matches10
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.60
Stability score11.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.90
Eligible Matches10
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate17.9%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches10
First Half Goals For Mean0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.72
Portability Score-8.95
Rest days-83.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.29
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.55
Current Team ELO118.4
Current Opponent ELO-118.4
Current ELO Difference236.9
Expected score0.33
History Matches10
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Port FC

W
Port FC7–4Beijing Guoan3 Nov · home
Pick: Port FC 37% · hit
L
Johor Darul Takzim FC3–0Port FC27 Oct · away
Pick: Johor Darul Takzim FC 58% · hit
W
Port FC4–1Rayong FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Port FC 70% · hit
W
Bangkok United0–2Port FC18 Oct · away
Pick: Bangkok United 40% · missed
L
Kashiwa Reysol5–1Port FC14 Oct · away
Pick: Kashiwa Reysol 43% · hit

Chonburi FC

W
Chonburi FC1–0BG Pathum United2 Nov · home
Pick: BG Pathum United 55% · missed
W
Ratchaburi1–2Chonburi FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Ratchaburi 56% · missed
L
Chonburi FC2–5Pattaya City20 Oct · home
Pick: Chonburi FC 61% · missed
L
Chonburi FC1–2Prachuap17 Oct · home
Pick: Prachuap 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Port FC and Chonburi FC meet in Thai League 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at PAT Stadium, Bangkok. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Port FC win 59.9%, draw 23.1%, Chonburi FC win 16.9%. The pick is Port FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.1%. Both teams to score: 56.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.