AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus
Match result probability Model pick: AZ Alkmaar win
AZ Alkmaar winPick
51.5%
Draw
19.2%
Juventus win
29.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.0%
No45.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.558.8%
Under 2.541.2%
How much we know
AZ Alkmaar history95 matches
Juventus history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours AZ Alkmaar
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 19:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre5 Nov · 20:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why AZ Alkmaar are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,665 against 1,666. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
AZ Alkmaar score more
2.02 goals a game over 95 matches for AZ Alkmaar, against 1.60 over 84 for Juventus.
-
Juventus concede fewer
AZ Alkmaar concede 1.29 a game, Juventus 1.04.
-
AZ Alkmaar games more often go over 2.5 goals
66% of AZ Alkmaar matches, against 43% for Juventus. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Juventus@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1665.0
ELO
1665.6
95
ELO · Matches
84
1665.0
Current Team ELO
1665.6
1665.6
Current Opponent ELO
1665.0
-0.67
Current ELO Difference
0.67
0.50
Expected score
0.50
95
History Matches
84
0.09
Residual Mean
0.10
57.80
Overperformance
57.80
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.40
3.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
0.40
100.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
2.00
2.80
Goals for per game
1.10
1.10
Goals against per game
0.60
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals 90
95
Matches
84
1.80
PPG
1.83
51.6%
Win rate
52.4%
25.3%
Draw rate
26.2%
23.2%
Loss rate
21.4%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
66.3%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
47.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals 100
52
Matches
42
2.10
PPG
1.62
59.6%
Win rate
45.2%
30.8%
Draw rate
26.2%
9.6%
Loss rate
28.6%
88.5%
Over 1.5 rate
59.5%
67.3%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
52
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.02
Goals for per game
1.60
88.4%
Scoring rate
79.8%
58.9%
BTTS rate
45.2%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.31
94.2%
Scoring rate
73.8%
63.5%
BTTS rate
45.2%
95
History Matches
84
2.02
Goals Mean
1.60
1.32
Goals Std
1.24
88.4%
Scored 1+ rate
79.8%
61.1%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
33.7%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
2.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.29
Goals against per game
1.04
68.4%
Conceding rate
59.5%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.10
67.3%
Conceding rate
64.3%
95
History Matches
84
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.04
1.21
Conceded Std
1.18
36.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.2%
17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.7%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.5%
11.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.2%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
5.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.5%
11.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.2%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.7%
5.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
95
History Matches
84
0.94
Result entropy
0.93
1.95
Goal Difference Std
1.71
6.44
Stability score
7.18
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
95
Eligible Matches
84
38
Lead Matches
32
76.3%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.86
22
Trailing Matches
21
31.8%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
95
Halftime Coverage Matches
84
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
75.23
Rest days
74.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
27
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.70
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
49
Normal Rest History Matches
59
1.92
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
18
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.72
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.89
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
10
Competition Season Count
10
9
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.60
Portability PPG Range
1.33
50.06
Portability Score
54.14
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
95
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-0.67
PPG-0.03
GF0.43
GA0.26
PPG0.48
PPG0.60
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.43
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate8.7%
Scored 2+ rate11.1%
Scored 3+ rate15.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate10.7%
Conceded 3+ rate7.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches11
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score-0.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate8.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.27
Portability Score-4.08
Rest days1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches22
Short Rest Points Per Match0.30
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-0.67
Current Opponent ELO0.67
Current ELO Difference-1.33
Expected score0.00
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
AZ Alkmaar
L
Ajax1–0AZ Alkmaar31 Oct · away
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 47% · missed L
AZ Alkmaar0–2Twente25 Oct · home
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 63% · missed W
Ararat-Armenia0–4AZ Alkmaar22 Oct · away
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 42% · hit D
Cambuur2–2AZ Alkmaar18 Oct · away
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 57% · missed W
AZ Alkmaar2–1Hapoel Beer Sheva15 Oct · home
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 49% · hit Juventus
W
Juventus2–0Napoli1 Nov · home
Pick: Juventus 38% · hit L
Genoa2–0Juventus28 Oct · away
Pick: Juventus 54% · missed W
Lecce0–2Juventus25 Oct · away
Pick: Lecce 34% · missed D
Juventus2–2Rennes22 Oct · home
Pick: Juventus 60% · missed L
Juventus0–3Lazio18 Oct · home
Pick: Juventus 52% · missed About this match
AZ Alkmaar and Juventus meet in UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: AZ Alkmaar win 51.5%, draw 19.2%, Juventus win 29.3%. The pick is AZ Alkmaar win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.8%. Both teams to score: 55.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.