ScoreProb
Copa del Rey Spain 2026

Badajoz vs Tenerife

Badajoz Home · Elo 1,653
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tenerife Away · Elo 1,606
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tenerife win
Badajoz win
27.7%
Draw
31.4%
Tenerife winPick
40.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.4%
No52.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.7%
Under 2.557.3%

How much we know

Badajoz history64 matches
Tenerife history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Tenerife are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Badajoz are rated 47 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,653 against 1,606. On rating alone Badajoz would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.64 goals a game over 64 matches for Badajoz, against 1.52 over 69 for Tenerife.

  • Defences are close

    Badajoz concede 0.72 a game, Tenerife 0.78.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    41% of Badajoz matches, against 39% for Tenerife. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Badajoz
Tenerife@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1652.9
ELO
1605.8
64
ELO · Matches
69
1652.9
Current Team ELO
1605.8
1605.8
Current Opponent ELO
1652.9
47.12
Current ELO Difference
-47.12
0.57
Expected score
0.43
64
History Matches
69
0.11
Residual Mean
0.08
58.50
Overperformance
56.07
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
2.00
2.20
Goals for per game
2.30
0.40
Goals against per game
0.90
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
69
1.92
PPG
1.75
56.3%
Win rate
49.3%
23.4%
Draw rate
27.5%
20.3%
Loss rate
23.2%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
69.6%
40.6%
Over 2.5 rate
39.1%
17.2%
Over 3.5 rate
23.2%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
33
2.17
PPG
1.58
63.3%
Win rate
42.4%
26.7%
Draw rate
30.3%
10.0%
Loss rate
27.3%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
43.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.2%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
30
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.64
Goals for per game
1.52
79.7%
Scoring rate
72.5%
39.1%
BTTS rate
39.1%
1.77
Goals for per game
1.36
86.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
43.3%
BTTS rate
39.4%
64
History Matches
69
1.64
Goals Mean
1.52
1.35
Goals Std
1.35
79.7%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
48.4%
Scored 2+ rate
44.9%
20.3%
Scored 3+ rate
23.2%
1.77
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.72
Goals against per game
0.78
51.6%
Conceding rate
55.1%
0.70
Goals against per game
0.82
50.0%
Conceding rate
57.6%
64
History Matches
69
0.72
Conceded Mean
0.78
0.87
Conceded Std
0.81
14.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.7%
4.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
1.4%
0.70
Venue Conceded Mean
0.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
48.4%
Clean-sheet rate
44.9%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.4%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
48.4%
Clean-sheet rate
44.9%
20.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.4%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
48.4%
Clean-sheet rate
44.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
69
0.90
Result entropy
0.95
1.62
Goal Difference Std
1.66
10.12
Stability score
5.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
69
25
Lead Matches
31
92.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.6%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.85
11
Trailing Matches
9
54.5%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
27.3%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.80
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.25
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
137.1
Rest days
73.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
37
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.95
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.66
26
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.88
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.58
Portability PPG Range
0.89
68.87
Portability Score
56.27
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO47.12
PPG0.17
GF0.12
GA-0.06
PPG0.59
PPG0.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate7.2%
Scored 2+ rate3.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.08
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate3.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.45
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score5.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.34
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate11.4%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate10.1%
Trailing Win Rate16.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.32
Portability Score12.60
Rest days64.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.29
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.05
Current Team ELO47.12
Current Opponent ELO-47.12
Current ELO Difference94.25
Expected score0.13
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Badajoz

D
Badajoz1–1Linares Deportivo1 Nov · home
Pick: Badajoz 55% · missed
D
Puente Genil0–0Badajoz25 Oct · away
Pick: Badajoz 46% · missed
W
Badajoz1–0Sanluqueño18 Oct · home
Pick: Badajoz 60% · hit
D
Sevilla Atletico2–2Badajoz4 Oct · away
Pick: Badajoz 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tenerife

D
Sabadell1–1Tenerife25 Oct · away
Pick: Tenerife 35% · missed
D
Celta de Vigo II1–1Tenerife19 Oct · away
Pick: Tenerife 45% · missed
D
Tenerife1–1Girona12 Oct · home
Pick: Tenerife 61% · missed
L
Cordoba3–2Tenerife5 Oct · away
Pick: Tenerife 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Badajoz and Tenerife meet in Copa del Rey on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Badajoz win 27.7%, draw 31.4%, Tenerife win 40.9%. The pick is Tenerife win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.7%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.