Calvo Sotelo vs Albacete
Match result probability Model pick: Albacete win
Calvo Sotelo win
30.4%
Draw
27.3%
Albacete winPick
42.3%
No match played
If the match is played on a new date, this page updates by itself.
Both teams to score
Yes47.9%
No52.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.545.8%
Under 2.554.2%
How much we know
Calvo Sotelo history50 matches
Albacete history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this match
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Albacete are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Calvo Sotelo are rated 123 Elo points higher
Elo 1,642 against 1,518. On rating alone Calvo Sotelo would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.50 goals a game over 50 matches for Calvo Sotelo, against 1.46 over 76 for Albacete.
-
Calvo Sotelo concede fewer
Calvo Sotelo concede 0.68 a game, Albacete 1.28.
-
Albacete games more often go over 2.5 goals
32% of Calvo Sotelo matches, against 55% for Albacete. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Albacete@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1641.7
ELO
1518.3
50
ELO · Matches
76
1641.7
Current Team ELO
1518.3
1518.3
Current Opponent ELO
1641.7
123.4
Current ELO Difference
-123.4
0.67
Expected score
0.33
50
History Matches
76
0.14
Residual Mean
0.02
60.12
Overperformance
51.42
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
0.40
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.10
1.80
Goals for per game
1.10
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals 90
50
Matches
76
2.00
PPG
1.51
56.0%
Win rate
43.4%
32.0%
Draw rate
21.1%
12.0%
Loss rate
35.5%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
32.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.3%
18.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
1.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
35
2.23
PPG
1.23
65.4%
Win rate
31.4%
26.9%
Draw rate
28.6%
7.7%
Loss rate
40.0%
65.4%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
30.8%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
19.2%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
26
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.50
Goals for per game
1.46
84.0%
Scoring rate
80.3%
42.0%
BTTS rate
57.9%
1.62
Goals for per game
1.20
84.6%
Scoring rate
71.4%
30.8%
BTTS rate
51.4%
50
History Matches
76
1.50
Goals Mean
1.46
0.96
Goals Std
1.14
84.0%
Scored 1+ rate
80.3%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.1%
14.0%
Scored 3+ rate
15.8%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
1.20
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.68
Goals against per game
1.28
48.0%
Conceding rate
69.7%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.23
34.6%
Conceding rate
65.7%
50
History Matches
76
0.68
Conceded Mean
1.28
0.81
Conceded Std
1.17
18.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.8%
2.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.8%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
52.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
65.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
52.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.7%
65.4%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
52.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
50
History Matches
76
0.86
Result entropy
0.96
1.19
Goal Difference Std
1.60
14.10
Stability score
3.70
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
50
Eligible Matches
76
18
Lead Matches
21
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.76
5
Trailing Matches
25
80.0%
Non-loss rate
28.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
178.2
Rest days
74.11
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
29
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
20
Long Rest History Matches
31
2.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.68
0.80
Portability PPG Range
2.00
55.40
Portability Score
42.37
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
50
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO123.4
PPG0.49
GF0.04
GA-0.60
PPG1.00
PPG1.60
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-26
Clean-sheet rate21.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate31.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-26
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate3.7%
Scored 2+ rate7.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches-26
Conceded Mean-0.60
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate21.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.09
History Matches-26
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.40
Stability score10.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.28
Eligible Matches-26
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate17.5%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-20
Non-loss rate52.0%
Trailing Win Rate4.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-26
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-1.20
Portability Score13.03
Rest days104.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.38
Long Rest History Matches-11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.65
Current Team ELO123.4
Current Opponent ELO-123.4
Current ELO Difference246.8
Expected score0.34
History Matches-26
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance8.71
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Calvo Sotelo
L
Calvo Sotelo1–2Guadalajara1 Nov · home
Pick: Calvo Sotelo 41% · missed D
Getafe II2–2Calvo Sotelo25 Oct · away
Pick: Getafe II 48% · missed L
SS Reyes2–1Calvo Sotelo18 Oct · away
Pick: SS Reyes 50% · hit L
Real Valladolid II3–0Calvo Sotelo4 Oct · away
Pick: Calvo Sotelo 40% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Albacete
W
Albacete2–1Sabadell31 Oct · home
Pick: Albacete 42% · hit W
Albacete2–0Eldense25 Oct · home
Pick: Albacete 54% · hit L
Sporting Gijon2–1Albacete17 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting Gijon 49% · hit L
Valladolid5–0Albacete12 Oct · away
Pick: Albacete 44% · missed L
Albacete0–1Oviedo29 Aug · home
Pick: Albacete 47% · missed About this match
Calvo Sotelo and Albacete were due to play in Copa del Rey on Wednesday 4 November 2026, but the match was not played.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.