ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Spain Group 5 - 10 2026

Badalona vs Mollerussa

Badalona Home · Elo 1,512
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mollerussa Away · Elo 1,479
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Badalona win
Badalona winPick
39.4%
Draw
25.2%
Mollerussa win
35.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.4%
No48.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%

How much we know

Badalona history48 matches
Mollerussa history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Badalona are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Badalona are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,512 against 1,479. On rating alone Badalona would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Mollerussa score more

    1.06 goals a game over 48 matches for Badalona, against 1.29 over 49 for Mollerussa.

  • Defences are close

    Badalona concede 1.40 a game, Mollerussa 1.35.

  • Mollerussa games more often go over 2.5 goals

    40% of Badalona matches, against 53% for Mollerussa. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Badalona
Mollerussa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1511.5
ELO
1478.7
48
ELO · Matches
49
1511.5
Current Team ELO
1478.7
1478.7
Current Opponent ELO
1511.5
32.88
Current ELO Difference
-32.88
0.55
Expected score
0.45
48
History Matches
49
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.02
50.93
Overperformance
48.93
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.70
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
49
1.29
PPG
1.22
35.4%
Win rate
30.6%
22.9%
Draw rate
30.6%
41.7%
Loss rate
38.8%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
75.5%
39.6%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
27.1%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
23
1.29
PPG
1.13
33.3%
Win rate
26.1%
29.2%
Draw rate
34.8%
37.5%
Loss rate
39.1%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
24
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.06
Goals for per game
1.29
68.8%
Scoring rate
67.3%
41.7%
BTTS rate
51.0%
1.17
Goals for per game
1.22
66.7%
Scoring rate
60.9%
41.7%
BTTS rate
47.8%
48
History Matches
49
1.06
Goals Mean
1.29
0.99
Goals Std
1.16
68.8%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
10.4%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.40
Goals against per game
1.35
64.6%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.48
66.7%
Conceding rate
69.6%
48
History Matches
49
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.38
Conceded Std
1.22
43.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
18.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
35.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
35.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
49
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.66
2.60
Stability score
0.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
49
9
Lead Matches
11
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.88
14
Trailing Matches
13
21.4%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
154.0
Rest days
182.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
24
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.75
Portability PPG Std
0.07
1.49
Portability PPG Range
0.13
40.15
Portability Score
88.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO32.88
PPG0.07
GF-0.22
GA0.05
PPG0.16
PPG0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std-0.17
Scored 1+ rate1.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate6.8%
Conceded 2+ rate0.9%
Conceded 3+ rate6.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.72
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score2.01
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.86
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate7.1%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.68
Portability PPG Range1.36
Portability Score-48.30
Rest days-28.24
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.29
Current Team ELO32.88
Current Opponent ELO-32.88
Current ELO Difference65.75
Expected score0.09
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Badalona

W
L'Hospitalet0–2Badalona1 Nov · away
Pick: L'Hospitalet 53% · missed
L
Badalona1–4Cornellà25 Oct · home
Pick: Cornellà 39% · hit
D
Atlètic Lleida2–2Badalona18 Oct · away
Pick: Atlètic Lleida 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mollerussa

W
Mollerussa2–1San Juan Atletico de Montcada1 Nov · home
Pick: Mollerussa 66% · hit
L
Pobla Mafumet2–1Mollerussa25 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 37% · missed
D
Mollerussa2–2Peralada18 Oct · home
Pick: Peralada 43% · missed
L
L'Hospitalet2–1Mollerussa14 Oct · away
Pick: L'Hospitalet 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Badalona and Mollerussa meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Badalona win 39.4%, draw 25.2%, Mollerussa win 35.4%. The pick is Badalona win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.9%. Both teams to score: 51.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.