ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Spain Group 5 - 10 2026

L'Escala vs Atlètic Lleida

L'Escala Home · Elo 1,470
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atlètic Lleida Away · Elo 1,458
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atlètic Lleida win
L'Escala win
30.5%
Draw
27.3%
Atlètic Lleida winPick
42.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.8%
No46.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.5%
Under 2.545.5%

How much we know

L'Escala history51 matches
Atlètic Lleida history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Atlètic Lleida are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,470 against 1,458. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.41 goals a game over 51 matches for L'Escala, against 1.39 over 59 for Atlètic Lleida.

  • Defences are close

    L'Escala concede 1.39 a game, Atlètic Lleida 1.27.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    55% of L'Escala matches, against 47% for Atlètic Lleida. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
L'Escala
Atlètic Lleida
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.9
ELO
1457.8
51
ELO · Matches
59
1469.9
Current Team ELO
1457.8
1457.8
Current Opponent ELO
1469.9
12.10
Current ELO Difference
-12.10
0.52
Expected score
0.48
51
History Matches
59
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
48.47
Overperformance
47.52
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.20
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
0.80
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.45
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
59
1.39
PPG
1.19
37.3%
Win rate
28.8%
27.5%
Draw rate
32.2%
35.3%
Loss rate
39.0%
80.4%
Over 1.5 rate
76.3%
54.9%
Over 2.5 rate
47.5%
31.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.7%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
29
1.93
PPG
1.10
53.6%
Win rate
27.6%
32.1%
Draw rate
27.6%
14.3%
Loss rate
44.8%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.3%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
17.2%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
28
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.41
Goals for per game
1.39
78.4%
Scoring rate
76.3%
56.9%
BTTS rate
57.6%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.10
85.7%
Scoring rate
72.4%
53.6%
BTTS rate
51.7%
51
History Matches
59
1.41
Goals Mean
1.39
1.11
Goals Std
1.32
78.4%
Scored 1+ rate
76.3%
39.2%
Scored 2+ rate
35.6%
19.6%
Scored 3+ rate
13.6%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.39
Goals against per game
1.27
74.5%
Conceding rate
74.6%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.24
60.7%
Conceding rate
72.4%
51
History Matches
59
1.39
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.14
Conceded Std
1.01
45.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.0%
13.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.9%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.7%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.6%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
59
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.67
0.76
Stability score
0.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
59
12
Lead Matches
13
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.77
12
Trailing Matches
12
8.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
59
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.9
Rest days
77.73
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
24
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.09
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
7
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.74
0.20
Portability PPG Range
1.73
83.54
Portability Score
40.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO12.10
PPG0.21
GF0.02
GA0.12
PPG0.83
PPG1.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate0.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate11.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-8
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate2.2%
Scored 2+ rate3.6%
Scored 3+ rate6.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.65
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.82
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.12
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate0.1%
Conceded 2+ rate6.1%
Conceded 3+ rate1.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.02
Stability score0.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.61
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate5.8%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.64
Portability PPG Range-1.54
Portability Score43.21
Rest days105.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.20
Current Team ELO12.10
Current Opponent ELO-12.10
Current ELO Difference24.21
Expected score0.03
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

L'Escala

L
Vilanova2–1L'Escala1 Nov · away
Pick: L'Escala 35% · missed
D
L'Escala0–0Tona25 Oct · home
Pick: L'Escala 39% · missed
D
San Cristóbal1–1L'Escala18 Oct · away
Pick: L'Escala 40% · missed
L
Montañesa2–0L'Escala14 Oct · away
Pick: Montañesa 37% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Atlètic Lleida

L
Atlètic Lleida0–2Europa II31 Oct · home
Pick: Atlètic Lleida 60% · missed
W
Grama0–1Atlètic Lleida25 Oct · away
Pick: Atlètic Lleida 38% · hit
D
Atlètic Lleida2–2Badalona18 Oct · home
Pick: Atlètic Lleida 52% · missed
D
Atlètic Lleida1–1Pobla Mafumet4 Oct · home
Pick: Atlètic Lleida 66% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

L'Escala and Atlètic Lleida meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: L'Escala win 30.5%, draw 27.3%, Atlètic Lleida win 42.2%. The pick is Atlètic Lleida win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.5%. Both teams to score: 53.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.