ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 Spain Group 5 - 10 2026

Grama vs L'Hospitalet

Grama Home · Elo 1,553
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
L'Hospitalet Away · Elo 1,525
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: L'Hospitalet win
Grama win
33.5%
Draw
28.0%
L'Hospitalet winPick
38.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

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Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.6%
No45.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%

How much we know

Grama history50 matches
L'Hospitalet history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why L'Hospitalet are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Grama are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,553 against 1,525. On rating alone Grama would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.56 goals a game over 50 matches for Grama, against 1.56 over 55 for L'Hospitalet.

  • Defences are close

    Grama concede 1.14 a game, L'Hospitalet 1.18.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Grama matches, against 53% for L'Hospitalet. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Grama
L'Hospitalet
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1553.4
ELO
1524.9
50
ELO · Matches
55
1553.4
Current Team ELO
1524.9
1524.9
Current Opponent ELO
1553.4
28.46
Current ELO Difference
-28.46
0.54
Expected score
0.46
50
History Matches
55
0.05
Residual Mean
0.02
53.45
Overperformance
51.67
0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.00
0.60
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.41
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.40
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
55
1.56
PPG
1.56
38.0%
Win rate
43.6%
42.0%
Draw rate
25.5%
20.0%
Loss rate
30.9%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.4%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.7%
34.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.1%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
27
1.58
PPG
1.33
37.5%
Win rate
37.0%
45.8%
Draw rate
22.2%
16.7%
Loss rate
40.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
59.3%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
1.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
24
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.56
Goals for per game
1.56
80.0%
Scoring rate
72.7%
66.0%
BTTS rate
47.3%
1.21
Goals for per game
1.56
66.7%
Scoring rate
70.4%
45.8%
BTTS rate
44.4%
50
History Matches
55
1.56
Goals Mean
1.56
1.12
Goals Std
1.37
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
54.0%
Scored 2+ rate
47.3%
16.0%
Scored 3+ rate
23.6%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.14
Goals against per game
1.18
74.0%
Conceding rate
61.8%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.33
54.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
50
History Matches
55
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.18
0.87
Conceded Std
1.18
34.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.2%
6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
55
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.31
Goal Difference Std
1.75
4.07
Stability score
2.33
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
55
18
Lead Matches
19
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
89.5%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.91
12
Trailing Matches
12
41.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
91.74
Rest days
91.78
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
22
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
26
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.10
0.20
Portability PPG Range
0.19
83.41
Portability Score
83.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO28.46
PPG0.00
GF0.00
GA-0.04
PPG0.25
PPG1.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate3.7%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate7.3%
Scored 2+ rate6.7%
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.61
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.30
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.74
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score1.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.72
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate41.7%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.01
Portability Score-0.39
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO28.46
Current Opponent ELO-28.46
Current ELO Difference56.93
Expected score0.08
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Grama

D
Cornellà1–1Grama31 Oct · away
Pick: Cornellà 38% · missed
L
Grama0–1Atlètic Lleida25 Oct · home
Pick: Atlètic Lleida 38% · hit
D
Vilanova0–0Grama17 Oct · away
Pick: Grama 42% · missed
W
San Cristóbal0–5Grama14 Oct · away
Pick: Grama 47% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

L'Hospitalet

L
L'Hospitalet0–2Badalona1 Nov · home
Pick: L'Hospitalet 53% · missed
D
San Juan Atletico de Montcada2–2L'Hospitalet25 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · hit
W
L'Hospitalet2–1Pobla Mafumet18 Oct · home
Pick: L'Hospitalet 68% · hit
W
L'Hospitalet2–1Mollerussa14 Oct · home
Pick: L'Hospitalet 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Grama and L'Hospitalet meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Grama win 33.5%, draw 28.0%, L'Hospitalet win 38.5%. The pick is L'Hospitalet win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.0%. Both teams to score: 54.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.