ScoreProb
FAW Championship Wales South - 14 2026

Baglan Dragons vs Ynyshir Albions

Baglan Dragons Home · Elo 1,441
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ynyshir Albions Away · Elo 1,428
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Baglan Dragons win
Baglan Dragons winPick
43.4%
Draw
28.3%
Ynyshir Albions win
28.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.3%
No52.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.4%
Under 2.546.6%

How much we know

Baglan Dragons history44 matches
Ynyshir Albions history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Baglan Dragons are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,441 against 1,428. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Ynyshir Albions score more

    0.84 goals a game over 44 matches for Baglan Dragons, against 1.08 over 36 for Ynyshir Albions.

  • Baglan Dragons concede fewer

    Baglan Dragons concede 1.45 a game, Ynyshir Albions 1.89.

  • Ynyshir Albions games more often go over 2.5 goals

    36% of Baglan Dragons matches, against 56% for Ynyshir Albions. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Baglan Dragons
Ynyshir Albions
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1440.7
ELO
1427.9
44
ELO · Matches
36
1440.7
Current Team ELO
1427.9
1427.9
Current Opponent ELO
1440.7
12.77
Current ELO Difference
-12.77
0.52
Expected score
0.48
44
History Matches
36
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.10
44.92
Overperformance
43.74
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.00
0.60
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.30
0.40
Goals for per game
1.30
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
2.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
36
1.02
PPG
0.86
22.7%
Win rate
19.4%
34.1%
Draw rate
27.8%
43.2%
Loss rate
52.8%
68.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
15.9%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
20
Matches
18
1.05
PPG
0.72
20.0%
Win rate
16.7%
45.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
35.0%
Loss rate
61.1%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
94.4%
45.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
20
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.84
Goals for per game
1.08
56.8%
Scoring rate
63.9%
40.9%
BTTS rate
52.8%
1.10
Goals for per game
1.06
60.0%
Scoring rate
61.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
55.6%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
44
History Matches
36
0.84
Goals Mean
1.08
0.93
Goals Std
1.19
56.8%
Scored 1+ rate
63.9%
18.2%
Scored 2+ rate
22.2%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
13.9%
1.10
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.89
70.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.75
Goals against per game
2.11
80.0%
Conceding rate
88.9%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.00
25.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
44
History Matches
36
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.89
1.51
Conceded Std
1.47
36.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.1%
20.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.6%
1.75
Venue Conceded Mean
2.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
43.2%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
75.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
43.2%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
38.9%
29.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
36
0.97
Result entropy
0.92
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.91
2.95
Stability score
7.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
36
12
Lead Matches
5
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.67
11
Trailing Matches
18
18.2%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.03
0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
19
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.94
22
Long Rest History Matches
18
0.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.72
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
1.75
PPG
1.33
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
25.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
4
Current Competition Matches
3
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.92
Portability PPG Range
0.57
55.20
Portability Score
63.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO12.77
PPG0.16
GF-0.24
GA-0.43
PPG0.42
PPG0.33
PPG0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Failed-to-score rate7.1%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Failed-to-score rate1.1%
History Matches8
Goals Mean-0.24
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.78
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.43
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.25
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.93
History Matches8
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score-4.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.46
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate6.7%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate1.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.42
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.35
Portability Score-8.63
Rest days0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.38
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO12.77
Current Opponent ELO-12.77
Current ELO Difference25.54
Expected score0.04
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Baglan Dragons

L
Baglan Dragons0–1Treowen Stars30 Oct · home
Pick: Treowen Stars 45% · hit
W
Llantwit Fardre1–3Baglan Dragons17 Oct · away
Pick: Llantwit Fardre 35% · missed
L
Baglan Dragons0–1Caerphilly Athletic31 Aug · home
Pick: Baglan Dragons 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ynyshir Albions

W
Ynyshir Albions4–2Swansea University31 Oct · home
Pick: Swansea University 54% · missed
L
Cardiff MET4–0Ynyshir Albions16 Oct · away
Pick: Cardiff MET 59% · hit
D
Afan Lido0–0Ynyshir Albions31 Aug · away
Pick: Afan Lido 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Baglan Dragons and Ynyshir Albions meet in FAW Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Baglan Dragons win 43.4%, draw 28.3%, Ynyshir Albions win 28.3%. The pick is Baglan Dragons win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.4%. Both teams to score: 47.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.