Baish vs Arar
Baish
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Arar
Match result probability Model pick: Arar win
Baish win
36.5%
Draw
25.6%
Arar winPick
37.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.0%
No42.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.560.6%
Under 2.539.4%
How much we know
Baish history0 matches
Arar history13 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Arar
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:15 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 15:15 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Arar are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Baish are rated 42 Elo points higher
Elo 1,500 against 1,458. On rating alone Baish would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Baish
Arar
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1458.4
0
ELO · Matches
13
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1458.4
1458.4
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
41.60
Current ELO Difference
-41.60
0.56
Expected score
0.44
0
History Matches
13
—
Residual Mean
-0.17
—
Overperformance
43.42
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
0.60
—
Goals for per game
2.00
—
Goals against per game
2.80
—
Win rate
20.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
0.80
—
Goals for per game
1.60
—
Goals against per game
2.20
—
Win rate
20.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.89
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
13
—
PPG
0.92
—
Win rate
23.1%
—
Draw rate
23.1%
—
Loss rate
53.8%
—
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
—
Over 2.5 rate
69.2%
—
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
7
—
PPG
0.71
—
Win rate
14.3%
—
Draw rate
28.6%
—
Loss rate
57.1%
—
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
—
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
—
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
0
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.69
—
Scoring rate
76.9%
—
BTTS rate
69.2%
—
Goals for per game
1.57
—
Scoring rate
71.4%
—
BTTS rate
71.4%
0
History Matches
13
—
Goals Mean
1.69
—
Goals Std
1.38
—
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
—
Scored 2+ rate
46.2%
—
Scored 3+ rate
30.8%
—
Venue Goals Mean
1.57
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
2.15
—
Conceding rate
84.6%
—
Goals against per game
2.43
—
Conceding rate
85.7%
0
History Matches
13
—
Conceded Mean
2.15
—
Conceded Std
1.66
—
Conceded 2+ rate
69.2%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
23.1%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
2.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
—
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
—
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
—
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
—
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
—
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
—
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
—
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
13
—
Result entropy
0.92
—
Goal Difference Std
1.74
—
Stability score
8.06
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
10
0
Lead Matches
2
—
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
1.00
0
Trailing Matches
5
—
Non-loss rate
0.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
10
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.20
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
Rest days
213.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
8
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
0
Long Rest History Matches
4
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
1
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
13
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO41.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
History Matches-7
History Matches-13
History Matches-13
History Matches-13
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-2
Trailing Matches-5
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest History Matches-4
Current Team ELO41.60
Current Opponent ELO-41.60
Current ELO Difference83.21
Expected score0.12
History Matches-13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Baish
D
Mudhar Club2–2Baish3 Nov · away
Pick: Mudhar Club 57% · missed W
Baish2–1Hetten FC28 Oct · home
Pick: Baish 41% · hit W
Baish2–1Afif24 Oct · home
Pick: Baish 38% · hit W
Al Qwarah2–3Baish16 Oct · away
Pick: Al Qwarah 50% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Arar
L
Al-Ain3–1Arar2 Nov · away
Pick: Al-Ain 62% · hit D
Arar2–2Al Rayan28 Oct · home
Pick: Al Rayan 54% · missed L
Arar0–2Al-Wajj23 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Wajj 38% · hit W
Al Taraji1–3Arar16 Oct · away
Pick: Al Taraji 44% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Baish and Arar meet in Division 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Baish win 36.5%, draw 25.6%, Arar win 37.8%. The pick is Arar win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.6%. Both teams to score: 58.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.