ScoreProb
Oberliga - Nordost-Nord Germany NOFV-Nord - 11 2026

BAK '07 vs Tennis Borussia

BAK '07 Home · Elo 1,488
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tennis Borussia Away · Elo 1,455
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: BAK '07 win
BAK '07 winPick
50.9%
Draw
21.5%
Tennis Borussia win
27.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.2%
Under 2.534.8%

How much we know

BAK '07 history46 matches
Tennis Borussia history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why BAK '07 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • BAK '07 are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,488 against 1,455. On rating alone BAK '07 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.67 goals a game over 46 matches for BAK '07, against 1.67 over 48 for Tennis Borussia.

  • BAK '07 concede fewer

    BAK '07 concede 1.76 a game, Tennis Borussia 2.13.

  • Tennis Borussia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of BAK '07 matches, against 79% for Tennis Borussia. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
BAK '07
Tennis Borussia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1488.2
ELO
1454.8
46
ELO · Matches
48
1488.2
Current Team ELO
1454.8
1454.8
Current Opponent ELO
1488.2
33.34
Current ELO Difference
-33.34
0.55
Expected score
0.45
46
History Matches
48
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.05
49.36
Overperformance
46.59
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.61
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
48
1.41
PPG
1.13
41.3%
Win rate
31.3%
17.4%
Draw rate
18.8%
41.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
69.6%
Over 2.5 rate
79.2%
32.6%
Over 3.5 rate
54.2%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
25
1.63
PPG
0.68
50.0%
Win rate
16.0%
12.5%
Draw rate
20.0%
37.5%
Loss rate
64.0%
95.8%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
72.0%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
56.0%
2.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
24
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.67
82.6%
Scoring rate
72.9%
69.6%
BTTS rate
62.5%
2.04
Goals for per game
1.16
91.7%
Scoring rate
68.0%
70.8%
BTTS rate
64.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
46
History Matches
48
1.67
Goals Mean
1.67
1.43
Goals Std
1.61
82.6%
Scored 1+ rate
72.9%
41.3%
Scored 2+ rate
45.8%
26.1%
Scored 3+ rate
27.1%
2.04
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.76
Goals against per game
2.13
82.6%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.75
Goals against per game
2.52
79.2%
Conceding rate
92.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
46
History Matches
48
1.76
Conceded Mean
2.13
1.49
Conceded Std
1.45
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.3%
19.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
39.6%
1.75
Venue Conceded Mean
2.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
8.0%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.0%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
48
0.94
Result entropy
0.93
2.20
Goal Difference Std
2.52
5.82
Stability score
6.80
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
47
9
Lead Matches
12
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.78
21
Trailing Matches
18
38.1%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
1.11
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.02
Rest days
84.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
21
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.91
23
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.04
0.79
Portability PPG Range
0.07
56.02
Portability Score
93.15
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO33.34
PPG0.29
GF0.01
GA-0.36
PPG1.00
PPG0.95
PPG0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate4.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate12.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate9.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.43
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.36
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate4.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Conceded Mean-0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.41
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score-0.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.45
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate27.0%
Trailing Win Rate3.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.36
Portability PPG Range0.71
Portability Score-37.13
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.00
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Current Team ELO33.34
Current Opponent ELO-33.34
Current ELO Difference66.68
Expected score0.10
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

BAK '07

W
Makkabi0–1BAK '071 Nov · away
Pick: Makkabi 46% · missed
D
BAK '071–1FC Lok Stendal25 Oct · home
Pick: BAK '07 57% · missed
L
Hertha Zehlendorf3–0BAK '0718 Oct · away
Pick: Hertha Zehlendorf 41% · hit
W
Sparta Lichtenberg1–3BAK '0730 Aug · away
Pick: Sparta Lichtenberg 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tennis Borussia

L
Tennis Borussia1–2Sparta Lichtenberg1 Nov · home
Pick: Tennis Borussia 50% · missed
L
Reinickendorfer Fuchse1–0Tennis Borussia23 Oct · away
Pick: Reinickendorfer Fuchse 38% · hit
W
Tennis Borussia1–0Optik Rathenow18 Oct · home
Pick: Tennis Borussia 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

BAK '07 and Tennis Borussia meet in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: BAK '07 win 50.9%, draw 21.5%, Tennis Borussia win 27.6%. The pick is BAK '07 win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.2%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.